USD/CAD weakens to near 1.4300 as Trump delays tariffs policy
- USD/CAD softens to around 1.4300 in Tuesday’s early Asian session.
- Trump did not impose tariffs on US trading partners on his first day in the White House.
- BoC’s latest Business Outlook Survey suggested that the overall economic sentiment remains subdued.
The USD/CAD pair remains on the defensive around 1.4300 during the early Asian session on Tuesday, pressured by the weakening of the US Dollar (USD). The Greenback trades in choppy trading as traders await further details on President-elect Donald Trump’s economic plans, including tariff policies.
Bloomberg reported on Monday that Trump will not announce tariffs immediately after his inauguration on Monday but will call federal agencies to study tariff policy and the United States' trade ties with Canada, Mexico, and China. The USD faced some selling pressure following this report.
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is anticipated to hold its benchmark overnight rate steady in the 4.25%-4.50% range at its January meeting. However, investors expect Trump’s policies could fuel inflation pressures, which may only allow the Fed to cut rates once more. This, in turn, might help limit the USD’s losses in the near term.
On the Loonie front, the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) Business Outlook Survey showed Canadian firms see improved demand and sales in the coming year, fuelled by rate cuts, but are concerned about the potential risks from promised US trade policies from Trump’s administration. Meanwhile, the decline in crude oil prices might drag the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) lower. Canada is the largest oil exporter to the US, and lower crude oil prices tend to have a negative impact on the CAD value.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
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