EUR/USD price analysis: Pair inches up to 1.0430, still capped by key resistance

• EUR/USD registers a minor uptick on Friday, trading near 1.0430 after recent losses.
• RSI climbs to 44 in negative territory, indicating a tepid recovery but still suggesting sellers hold the upper hand.
• MACD histogram shows flat green bars, hinting at fading bearish momentum while the 20-day SMA remains a key hurdle.

The EUR/USD pair ended a shortened week with a modest bounce, inching up to around 1.0430 on Friday. While this uptick offers brief respite from recent declines, the pair continues to trade below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), highlighting the prevailing downtrend. The SMA, parked above current price levels, will be the first target on the agenda in 2025 if buyers seek to bolster a more constructive outlook.

Technical signals are mixed but lean cautiously toward the downside. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen sharply to 44, yet it remains entrenched in negative territory, suggesting that bullish efforts are tentative at best. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram shows flat green bars, implying that the market may be losing some of its earlier bearish traction but has yet to shift decisively in favor of the bulls.

Looking ahead, traders will need to see a sustained move above the 20-day SMA to confirm a meaningful trend change. In the absence of such a breakthrough, the pair is likely to stay vulnerable to fresh selling pressure, keeping downside risks in play despite the recent stabilization in price action.

EUR/USD daily chart