GBP/USD remains subdued near 1.2500 due to increased odds of fewer Fed rate cuts
- GBP/USD edges lower amid light trading day post-Christmas holiday.
- The US Dollar strengthens as expectations grow for reduced Fed policy easing next year.
- The Pound Sterling struggles as a surprise MPC split vote signals a potentially accelerated pace of monetary easing in 2025.
GBP/USD remains subdued for the third successive day, trading around 1.2520 during the Asian hours on Friday. The downside can be attributed to thin trading activity following the Christmas holiday and a stronger US Dollar (USD), driven by growing expectations of fewer rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed).
In its December meeting, the Fed reduced interest rates by a quarter point and revised its 2025 projection to include only two rate cuts, down from the previously forecasted four. However, the likelihood of additional rate cuts next year was tempered by moderate US PCE inflation data.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against its six major peers, trades above 108.00, slightly below its highest level since November 2022. However, the upside of the Greenback could be restrained as US Treasury bond yields remain subdued on Friday. 2-year and 10-year yields stand at 4.33% and 4.58%, respectively, at the time of writing.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) weakened against its major counterparts as expectations grew for a dovish policy stance from the Bank of England (BoE) in the coming year. In December, the UK central bank held its key interest rate steady at 4.75%, but a surprising split vote—where three policymakers supported rate cuts—hinted at a potentially faster pace of easing in 2025.
Market expectations for 2025 now include a 53-basis-point (bps) rate cut, up from the previously anticipated 46 bps. This adjustment follows a 6-3 vote by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), with three of the nine members advocating for a 25 bps rate reduction. Investors interpreted this as a clear signal of a dovish shift on the horizon.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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