AUD/JPY remains tepid around 97.00 due to rising odds of RBA reducing rates sooner
- AUD/JPY extends its losses as the AUD remains under pressure due to renewed concerns about China's economy.
- National Australia Bank maintains its forecast for the first RBA rate cut at the May 2025 meeting.
- The Japanese Yen struggles as the BoJ is widely expected to keep interest rates steady on Thursday.
AUD/JPY loses ground for the second consecutive session, trading around 97.00 during the European hours on Wednesday. The AUD/JPY cross extends its losses as the Australian Dollar (AUD) faces challenges due to the increased likelihood that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will cut interest rates sooner and more significantly than initially expected.
On Wednesday, the National Australia Bank (NAB) maintained its forecast for the first RBA rate cut at the May 2025 meeting, though they acknowledge February as a possibility.
The Aussie Dollar remains under pressure due to renewed concerns about China's economy, Australia’s key trading partner, following weak economic data. Chinese Retail Sales missed expectations in November, adding strain on policymakers after President Xi Jinping indicated a desire to boost household consumption last week.
However, the downside of the AUD/JPY cross could be restrained as the Japanese Yen (JPY) struggles as traders seem to be convinced that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will keep interest rates steady on Thursday.
Japan's Ministry of Finance announced on Wednesday an unexpected improvement in the trade deficit for November, which narrowed to ¥117.6 billion from October's ¥462.1 billion. This improvement was primarily attributed to robust export growth, which rose by 3.8% year-on-year in November, while imports fell by 3.8%.
Japan's trade data pointed to weak domestic demand amid an uncertain economic outlook and concerns about US President-elect Donald Trump's tariff plans are contributors to refraining the Bank of Japan from hiking interest rates.
Interest rates FAQs
Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation.
Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold.
The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
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