Further NOK-rally will prove temporary – Danske Bank

The growth story in Norway remains that of ‘muddling through’. Over the last two years we have had close to zero growth in the mainland economy and despite inflation – and presumably rates next year – coming lower the stabilisation in savings rates still seem to limit the potential for a sharp consumption driven rebound in mainland GDP. Also, the decline in new orders for the petroleum industries also suggest that one of the primary growth engines look set to lose steam in 2025, Danske Bank’s FX analysts note.

Downside pressure on NOK to strengthen in the coming years

“Norges Bank (NB) delivered a hawkish surprise at the September meeting by pushing back against market expectations of a 2024 rate cut. While we think it is fair for markets to price some probability of a 2024 rate cut, we think NB has revealed its preferences which suggest that continued downside surprises to inflation is unlikely to be enough to trigger rate cuts. Instead, we need to see capacity utilisation metrics turn over. We pencil in the first rate cut in March 2025 and eventually think NB will deliver more rate cuts than currently signalled in both 2025 and 2026.”

“Despite the NOK rallying since the US elections amid a very weak EUR performance and NOK rates following USD rates more closely, we remain medium- to long-term negative on NOK and see any further rally as temporary. Any announcement from NB to cap the size of the FX reserve seems like the most probable catalyst for driving more near-term NOK strength. We highlight how the combination of surging unit labour costs and falling unit profits is not sustainable over time without a rise in unemployment and/or a weaker exchange rate.”

“Given the fiscal setup in Norway we think the potential for much higher unemployment is capped which should add renewed downside pressure on NOK in the coming years. Risks are connected to the global investment environment, US monetary policy, possible NB announcement on FX intervention and the Middle East.”