EUR/JPY remains subdued around 165.50 following BoJ Meeting Minutes, awaits Eurozone PMI
- EUR/JPY faces downward pressure following hawkish meeting minutes from BoJ.
- BoJ Meeting Minutes showed that members were largely in agreement on continuing to raise interest rates.
- Traders await PMI data for Germany and the Eurozone and speeches from ECB officials on Wednesday.
EUR/JPY maintains its position near 165.50 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday as the Japanese Yen (JPY) gained support from hawkish minutes of the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) most recent meeting. The minutes showed that board members were largely in agreement on continuing to raise interest rates, as inflation and economic conditions align with the central bank’s objectives.
The Jibun Bank Japan Services Business Activity Index fell to 49.7 in October, down from 53.1 in September, signaling a decline in services activity. This marks the first contraction since June, although it was marginal, with companies reporting slower sales.
The positive Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data led traders to scale back expectations for a larger-than-usual interest rate cut at the December policy meeting. However, markets still anticipate the European Central Bank (ECB) will reduce the Deposit Facility Rate by the usual 25 basis points (bps) in December.
PMI data for Germany and the Eurozone is set to be released on Wednesday, and traders will shift their focus to speeches from European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde and Vice President Luis de Guindos later in the day.
Regarding the US presidential election, early exit poll results from Wisconsin indicate a lead for Republican candidate Donald Trump, with 56% of the vote compared to 42.5%, based on 7.5% of expected votes counted. In North Carolina, exit polls show a tight race between Trump and Kamala Harris, with 50% of the votes counted. In Michigan, with 12% of votes counted, Harris' lead has shrunk from 61% to 53%.
Central banks FAQs
Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%.
A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing.
A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%.
Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.
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