EUR: Data overflow in the euro area – UOB Group

Growth and inflation data across the eurozone begin to flow in today. This morning, French third-quarter GDP figures came in one-tenth above consensus at 0.4% QoQ, and we’ll see German and Italian growth numbers before the advanced eurozone print is released at 11.00 CET. Consensus is expecting a second consecutive 0.1% QoQ contraction in Germany, and unchanged 0.2% QoQ eurozone-wide growth, ING’s FX analyst Francesco Pesole.

Eurozone is on the verge of a data overflow

“The greater emphasis by the ECB on growth’s downside risks means these GDP numbers can have a higher market impact than usual. Incidentally, the Governing Council’s sanguine stance on inflation and their explicit tolerance for some bumps in the numbers across the next few months mean that CPI figures can have a somewhat reduced impact on the euro.”

“October numbers for Spain and Germany are published today, and the eurozone flash estimate tomorrow. Core Spanish inflation is seen inching lower to 2.3%, while German headline numbers are widely expected to rebound from September’s 1.6%.”

“EUR/USD briefly explored levels below 1.080 yesterday but then got a lift from soft US job openings. Barring a material surprise on growth/inflation today and tomorrow, markets will likely remain reluctant to price out ECB easing given the latest dovish communication, and a still wide USD:EUR short-term swap rate gap will stay consistent with EUR/USD around 1.07.”