USD/JPY at around 152.50 may offer a good risk-reward – DBS

USD/JPY had rebounded above 151, with the JPY being highly sensitive to the sharp rise in US yields, DBS’ FX & Credit Strategist Chang Wei Liang notes.

High risks of MOF intervention

“There is a risk that excessive JPY weakness will lead the BOJ to consider bringing forward its next rate hike, although this will likely await the outcome of Japanese elections on 27 Oct, with PM Ishiba having promised a supplementary budget post elections.”

“The IMF estimates Japan’s nominal neutral rate at about 1.50% and expects the BOJ to gradually raise rates. USD/JPY short-term volatility is high, but there is scope for a retracement below 150 if BOJ is to sharpen its rate guidance, as it had previously noted the stronger impact of exchange rates on inflation.”

“Furthermore, excessive JPY volatility, with USD/JPY having risen by over 10 big figures from 140 in September, heighten risks of MOF intervention. Being short USD/JPY at around 152.50 may offer a good risk-reward.”