The Euro to benefit from fewer rate cuts vs the Fed – DBS

EUR/USD is poised to move into a higher 1.10-1.15 range through 2025, DBS’ FX analysts Philip Wee and Chang Wei Liang note.

To move into a higher 1.10-1.15 range through 2025

“The European Central Bank (ECB) is unlikely to match the Fed’s pace in reducing interest rates. By September’s end, the ECB’s deposit facility rate was 150 bps above its 2% inflation target, compared to the Fed’s 275-300 bps.”

“ECB estimated an inflation-adjusted neutral rate of 1-2%, higher than the Fed’s 0-1%. The ECB’s easing is based on its expectation for inflation to ease amid record-low unemployment. However, the Fed is reducing rates to avert a further cooling labour market—something it considers no longer necessary to achieve its inflation target.”