AUD/USD declines to near 0.6650 as US Dollar recovers ahead of US inflation
- AUD/USD falls sharply to near 0.6650 amid strength in the US Dollar.
- Traders pare Fed large interest rate cut bets as US recession fears diminish.
- A sharp deflation in China’s PPI weighs on the Australian Dollar.
The AUD/USD pair slides to near 0.6650 in Monday’s North American session. The Aussie asset weakens as the US Dollar (USD) extends its recovery, with traders paring Federal Reserve (Fed) large interest rate cut bets on diminished United States (US) recession fears. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, jumps to near 101.60.
Fears of the US entering a recession receded after the release of the Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for August, which indicated that the pace of slowdown in the job growth in not as fast as it appeared in July figures. The data showed that US employers hired 142K job-seekers in August, fewer than estimates of 160K but significantly higher than the prior release of 89K.
Moderate growth in the US job market forced traders to pare bets supporting large interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed) this month. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the possibility for the Fed reducing interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) to 4.75%-5.00% in September is 25%, while the rest favors a 25-bps interest rate cut.
Going forward, investors will focus on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for August, which will be published on Wednesday. The US inflation data will significantly influence market speculation for how much the Fed will cut interest rates this month. Monthly headline and core inflation are estimated to have grown steadily by 0.2%. Annual headline CPI is expected to have risen at a slower pace of 2.6% from the former release of 2.9%.
In the Asia-Pacific region, the Australian Dollar (AUD) remains under pressure due to rising concerns over China’s economic growth. China’s CPI grew at a slower pace, and its Producer Price Index (CPI) deflated at a faster pace in August, which also weighed on antipodeans, being their leading trading partners.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
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