"Big 3" carmakers face "tough choices" to hit inventory targets - Wells Fargo

Investing.com -- The so-called "Big 3" Detroit automakers may be facing "tough choices ahead" as they push to lower their inventory levels, according to analysts at  Wells Fargo  (NYSE:WFC).

Jeep-owner Stellantis (NYSE:STLA), Ford (NYSE:F) and General Motors (NYSE:GM) were forced to raise prices during the pandemic to account for supply chain snags that led to shortages of new cars. But that has led to stubbornly elevated inventory levels, with the Big 3's backlogs of supply at the end of September ending at 80 days -- above their historical average of 72 days.

Higher inventories can ratchet up the pressure on carmakers to offload vehicles at steeper discounts prior to the arrival of new 2025 models.

All of the Big 3 have now targeted lowering inventories to the 50-60 day range, which would be below pre-COVID levels of roughly 70 days, the Wells Fargo analysts noted.

However, they flagged that this amounts to "big talk," adding that the auto groups still have to "walk the walk."

For Stellantis, which has high inventory levels partly due to its decision to bring down prices at a slower pace than its rivals, the analysts said its planned light-vehicle production cuts should help correct inventories down to the 50-60 day range. Earlier this week, the company said it expects to slash output prior to the launch of new models in late-2024.

However, current-quarter production at Ford and GM "looks insufficient", the analysts said. They estimated that the groups would have to reduce production by 70,000 - 80,000 units in the fourth quarter to reach their inventory goals.

"Both could also cut [price] to gain share. We believe a combo of cuts, [price] and missing targets are likely," the analysts said.

Quarter-on-quarter, the reductions would amount to a decrease of 14% to 15%. Such a steep drawdown in output would imply roughly $800 million to $1 billion in lower earnings before interest and taxes in the fourth quarter, the analysts projected.