Where Will IonQ Be in 1 Year?

Quantum computing has captured the attention of investors. The hope is that quantum computing will far outpace the capabilities of today's supercomputers, allowing for new developments in climate modeling, artificial intelligence, materials science, and elsewhere.

The potential transformation across many industries could also be lucrative. McKinsey estimates that revenue from this technology segment could be worth trillions of dollars over the next decade. And one such company that's already benefiting from a surge in investor interest for quantum computing is IonQ (NYSE: IONQ), with its share price skyrocketing 127% over the past 12 months (as of this writing).

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But what's happening with IonQ right now that's fueling this interest, and where could the quantum computing stock be one year from now? Here's where I think the company is headed.

What's happening with IonQ?

IonQ reported impressive revenue growth in 2024, with sales rising 95% to $43.1 million. IonQ also gained $95.6 million in new bookings, up 47% from the previous year. Management estimates the company will continue a solid growth trajectory this year, with revenue expected to nearly double to $85 million, at the midpoint of guidance.

The company ended the year with a cash balance of over $700 million, which should give IonQ some runway to continue expanding its business. But it's not all sunshine and rainbows for IonQ right now. The company had a net loss of $331.6 million in 2024, up from a loss of about $158 million in the previous year.

I don't expect IonQ, which is a high-growth company, to be profitable just yet, but it's important to note that its losses are widening at a time when there is plenty of uncertainty in the economy.

What will impact the company over the next year?

Speaking of uncertainty, there's a ton of it in the tech sector right now. Tech stocks have been tumbling recently, and IonQ isn't immune. Its share price is down 44% over the past three months (as of April 2).

Stocks can be volatile, so that's not exactly the problem. The issue is that some economists have increased their estimates for a recession materializing soon, and many companies are growing increasingly concerned, too. A recent CNBC survey found that 60% of CFOs think a recession is coming this year, with an additional 15% thinking it'll come early next year.

IonQ has experienced significant sales growth at times when the economy was strong, but it's unknown how well it'll do if and when other tech companies are less willing to spend money on new quantum computing services they may not need.

That doesn't mean the company will inevitably slow down if the economy does, but quantum computing is a speculative idea right now, and investors should understand that the impressive tech growth of the past few years might not be the same over the next couple of years.

It's probably best not to buy IonQ right now

Quantum computing could become a massive market, but there are still a lot of unknowns. Some people in the industry even admit the practical uses of it are still years away.

Even with IonQ's recent share price plunge, its stock still has a price-to-sales ratio of 109. That's very expensive for any stock, particularly as the broader tech sector is showing signs of slowing down. It's probably best to sit this one out right now.

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Chris Neiger has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.