President Donald Trump Is Now Caught Between a Rock and a Hard Place on Medicaid

Since being sworn into office on Jan. 20, President Donald Trump has walked a fine line when discussing the country's largest social programs such as Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security. Trump has gone on Fox News and said he has no plans to touch any of these programs. Yet Trump has also vowed to significantly cut spending to improve the country's worsening debt situation.

In line with these efforts, Trump recently supported the U.S. House of Representatives' budget resolution, which directs the U.S. House Energy and Commerce Committee (HECC) to cut hundreds of billions in spending over the next decade. HECC oversees Medicaid and Medicare, making many people wonder if spending for these programs is on the chopping block. As more info comes to light, Trump has found himself caught between a rock and a hard place.

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CBO weighs in

Specifically, the House Budget resolution, which the House approved by a narrow margin of 52-48, directs HECC, which has jurisdiction over Medicare and Medicaid, to cut $880 billion of spending over the next decade.

While the resolution does not specifically say to cut spending in Medicare and Medicaid, many critics argue that the only way to cut that amount of money is to dip into Medicare and Medicaid. This has created a lot of confusion as people try to understand whether Trump and Republicans do or do not plan to cut funding from some of these programs.

Recently, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO), which tends to study and provide research on how certain bills and laws will impact the U.S. budget and other fiscal matters, weighed in on the matter in response to inquiries from several Democrats. The CBO found that HECC collectively will oversee $8.8 trillion of spending over the next 10 years, not including Medicare.

Official White House photo by Tia Dufour

Of that amount, Medicaid makes up $8.2 trillion or 93%. So excluding Medicaid that only leaves $581 billion of spending to cut, meaning that HECC would very likely need to slash some Medicaid funding to achieve goals laid out under the House budget resolution.

Having supported the House budget resolution, Trump is likely going to find himself in a tough spot. He has very publicly said he won't touch the largest social programs including Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. This position stems back to beliefs Trump laid out over a decade ago when he advised Republicans not to cut money from these programs because it would make winning elections much more difficult. Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid support tens of millions if not hundreds of millions of older Americans, who tend to vote at higher levels than younger populations.

Trump could be left with a daunting decision

House Republicans have approved the budget resolution and now that resolution will head to the Senate, which isn't expected to vote on the matter until at least later this month.

It's quite possible that Trump doesn't expect the resolution to advance, so he is simply supporting it to not rustle any feathers for the time being. Trump and Republicans have also discussed the waste in most government programs, so perhaps they will say the $300 billion of cuts to Medicaid is intended to eliminate waste, although it could be a tough message to get through.

Trump is also a lame-duck president, so he may not be worried about future elections. On the off chance that both the House and Senate find a way to agree on the resolution in its current form, directing HECC to cut $880 billion of spending over the next decade, the president could be placed in an awkward position of going back on his word or upsetting his own party.

What this could mean for retirees

Medicaid is a bit different than Medicare or Social Security in that it has less to do with age and more to do with supporting lower-income populations ranging from retirees to adults to children. Still, close to 95 million people are enrolled in the program, 20% of which are over the age of 65. While Medicaid is not quite in the same financial situation as the Social Security program, it relies on the federal government for a significant amount of its funding. Cuts to Medicaid could put added pressure on a population that is already living on limited budgets and has faced pressure from higher consumer prices. Remember, just because inflation has slowed it doesn't mean prices have come down -- they've actually continued to rise, just at a slower pace.

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