What's Next for Solana: $115, or $250?

With Solana's (CRYPTO: SOL) price limping around the $136 mark after a stunning collapse of 44% over the last three months, even the coin's longtime investors are shaken. And, with downside catalysts looming in the next few weeks, many investors are feeling especially gloomy about the next few quarters.

But it turns out that there's also an argument for why Solana could go to $250 or higher, rather than seeing $115 or lower. Let's examine both arguments here and put them into the context of the coin's long-term potential rather than its short-term price performance.

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The case for this coin going lower

The biggest argument that most investors will bring to bear regarding why Solana is going to continue to drop in value is that sentiment is poor.

Per that argument, sentiment is poor because of a series of big scandals recently rocked the chain, including pump-and-dump scams committed by heads of state as well as well-known cryptocurrency influencers. Other issues, like the collapse of the meme coin market on the chain, are doubtlessly contributing factors. Upcoming supply unlocks for the chain's early investors, which many believe will lead to mass selling of Solana from those same large holders, are dampening the mood even further.

Yet this line of thought doesn't really hold up to closer investigation. Price action determines sentiment, and sentiment often feeds back into the same direction of price action. In other words, people sell when their coins are down while publicly grousing that their coins keep going down. This encourages other investors to fearfully sell their coins under the belief that further downward movement is all that's in store. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Solana has certainly experienced a raft of bad news recently. But what's notably missing from the bear case is any appreciation for the coin's long-term capacity for growth, or how any of the recent events detract from the investment thesis for buying it.

After all, bad actors and scams aren't anything new for the chain -- they're an unfortunate part of its reputation since the FTX crash a few years ago. It recovered from that period of turbulence thanks to its actual value as an asset, and it'll recover from this one, too.

In the long term, prices will be higher

So could the coin see $115 soon? Yes, but it doesn't really matter.

The chain is overwhelmingly exposed to more tailwinds and potential upside catalysts than headwinds or major risks, even when considering the present difficulties. And the longer you're willing to wait for those tailwinds and catalysts to play out, the better the investment's performance is likely to be.

It's becoming one of the chains of choice to launch artificial intelligence (AI) agents and AI infrastructure projects, thanks to its quick transaction times and inexpensive gas fees. At the same time, there may soon be exchange-traded funds (ETFs) approved that deepen the chain's integration with the traditional financial markets, opening up avenues for new investors to buy in. As if that weren't enough, Solana may be included in a national cryptocurrency reserve, assuming the U.S. actually forms one eventually. And when the meme coin markets recover, Solana will still be the cryptocurrency sector's place to gamble with long odds.

These catalysts in the wings mean that now is a smarter time to buy the dip with Solana than it is to sell. It may well take a few months or even a couple of years for the coin to recover to $250. But if you're willing to hold it to capture its growth over the long term, and you should be if you're thinking of investing in it at all, today's price action shouldn't be much of a concern, even if it feels painful for those who are already holding the coin.

In sum, think less about the price as a number, and more about the potential for value to be accruing to this coin over time. Things aren't nearly as bad as they look for Solana if you're willing to be patient. You should consider investing today and wait for the current storm clouds to clear.

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Alex Carchidi has positions in Solana. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Solana. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.