Why Forward Air Stock Dropped on Thursday

"Asset-light" transportation services provider Forward Air (NASDAQ: FWRD) stock came in light on earnings last night, and its stock is suffering -- down 6.8% through 10:05 a.m. ET Thursday morning.

Heading into the fourth-quarter report, analysts forecast Forward Air would earn $3.94 per share on sales of $667.4 million. Forward Air surprised its shareholders by reporting a $1.23-per-share loss, however, and sales were also weaker than expected, at $632.8 million.

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Forward Air's big Q4 loss

CFO Jamie Pierson said Forward Air took a $79 million goodwill impairment to the Q4 earnings of its Omni Logistics business, which was smaller than expected and "favorably impacted the quarter." On the other hand, Forward's "Expedited Freight segment was negatively impacted by [focusing] more on growing volume than profitability."

And that hurt results.

Ultimately, Forward Air doubled its Q4 2023 loss, and cash flow turned negative.

For the full year, acquiring Omni helped grow Forward Air's revenue 80%, to $2.5 billion. Net income, however, was negative at a $29.43-per-share loss.

Is Forward Air stock a buy?

Forward Air didn't give guidance for what it expects to earn this year, but analysts who follow the company aren't terribly optimistic. After losing money in 2024, Wall Street is forecasting net profit of no more than $15 million in 2025, and only $35 million in 2026. For a stock that has a $705 million market cap, that may not sound like much. It works out to a current-year P/E ratio of 47, and a forward P/E ratio of about 20.

However, while Forward Air burned cash in 2024, analysts have a much brighter outlook for cash generation going forward. This year alone, Forward Air might generate as much as $95 million in positive free cash flow (i.e., a price-to-free-cash-flow ratio of 7.4), and next year, FCF could nearly double to $176 million -- a P/FCF ratio of just 4.

If you think they're right about that, today's Forward Air stock sell-off could be a buying opportunity.

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Rich Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.