AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ: ASTS), a producer of low earth orbit (LEO) satellites for cellular networks, saw its stock soar more than 840% over the past 12 months. That rally was fueled by the launches of its first commercial satellites and new contracts.
With the market hovering near its all-time highs, many investors might be wary of chasing AST's high-flying stock. Nevertheless, I think it's still wise to nibble on AST's volatile shares ahead of its fourth-quarter report on March 3 for five simple reasons.
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AST's LEO satellites provide cellular 2G, 4G, and 5G connections to areas that can't be covered by terrestrial tower networks. It primarily delivers its data through low and mid-band spectrums, which operate at lower speeds but have broader coverage areas than the high-band spectrums used by its closest competitor, SpaceX's Starlink.
Starlink's satellites also directly connect to a central terminal (like a satellite dish), which subsequently beams the signal out to cellular phones. But instead of connecting to central terminals, AST directly links its satellites to its telecom partners' cellular networks. That streamlined approach could help AST, which is still much smaller than Starlink, expand at a faster rate.
AT&T and Verizon Communications, which both provide low-band 5G connections, partnered with AST in 2024 to counter T-Mobile's partnership with Starlink. Vodafone also signed a new 10-year contract with AST last December to expand its satellite coverage across Europe, Africa, India, and the Middle East.
AST launched its first five Block 1 BlueBird (BB1) commercial satellites last September. That marked its first step toward generating consistent revenue. The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) granted it a temporary authorization to start testing its BB1 satellites with AT&T and Verizon's networks in late January.
AST plans to launch its first four Block 2 BlueBird (BB2) satellites, which will be 3.5 times larger than its BB1 satellites and process 10 times more data, in March. It plans to eventually launch 17 BB2 satellites and expand its "constellation" to 243 LEO satellites over the long term, but it needs the FCC to approve that massive expansion. Any positive updates regarding its upcoming BB2 launch or other FCC approvals during its upcoming fourth-quarter report could drive AST's stock even higher.
AST has increased its number of outstanding shares by 287% since it went public by merging with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) on April 7, 2021. But after some wild swings, its stock price has still risen 174% since its first trading day. AST will likely continue to dilute its existing investors with more secondary offerings to raise more cash and stock-based compensation expenses to subsidize its salaries.
However, AST's insiders still bought 118 times more shares than they sold over the past 12 months. That warming insider sentiment suggests that AST's stock could still soar a lot higher as it scales up its business and launches even more satellites.
AST has an enterprise value of $5.9 billion, which might seem pretty bubbly for a company that is expected to generate just $5 million in revenue in 2024. However, analysts expect its revenue to jump to $68 million in 2025 and $309 million in 2026 as it expands its satellite constellations.
It still trades at 19 times that 2026 estimate, but its business could expand even more rapidly over the next few decades. So, if you believe AST SpaceMobile can maintain its early mover advantage in this booming niche market, it might be a great idea to pick up a few shares before it posts its next earnings report.
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Leo Sun has positions in Verizon Communications. The Motley Fool recommends T-Mobile US, Verizon Communications, and Vodafone Group Public. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.