How Much Money Did SpaceX Make in 2024?

As the Yogi Berra saying goes, "It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future." But it seems that the space forecasters at the media website Payload Space are making predicting the future look easy.

Roughly one year ago, Payload Space reported that SpaceX had just finished doing $8.7 billion in revenue in 2023, and earning a $3 billion profit on its business. Payload Space predicted that in 2024, both these numbers would grow substantially. SpaceX would grow its sales more than 50%, to $13.3 billion. SpaceX's earnings would rocket as well, rising 50% to $4.5 billion.

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Image source: Getty Images.

As the calendar flipped from 2024 to 2025, Payload took a look back at SpaceX's performance, and as it turns out, the final (albeit estimated) 2024 numbers look to be within 1.5% of what Payload initially forecast.

SpaceX launch services

Let's begin with the business that made SpaceX famous: launching rockets. Payload was actually off by quite a bit on this forecast. Predicting (correctly) that SpaceX would miss its target of launching 144 times in 2024, Payload estimated SpaceX would launch 140 times instead, and generate launch revenue of $5.5 billion.

Image source: Payload Space.

Where did Payload go wrong here, and what can we learn from it?

Basically, the research service initially expected SpaceX to run fewer revenue-less launches for its Starlink satellite internet service, and more revenue-generating launches for customers. The opposite happened, however (again, according to Payload's updated estimates).

SpaceX also charged less than expected for Transporter missions, in which it bundles lots of small satellites aboard single Falcon 9 rocket launches. This suggests SpaceX is working hard to squeeze out competitors in the small-rocket space, such as Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB), by cutting prices so low it will be tough to compete against.

SpaceX also got paid less than expected for running crewed missions to the International Space Station (ISS) for NASA. This doesn't sound logical, seeing as the threat of a competing service from Boeing (NYSE: BA) has all but evaporated. Perhaps, though, CEO Elon Musk is looking ahead to Blue Origin and its New Glenn launching a competing space taxi service to the ISS.

In any case, SpaceX generated $1.3 billion less launch revenue than Payload anticipated. Launch revenue totaled only $4.2 billion.

That's a respectable 19% growth rate, by the way. I'll bet it was a lot less than SpaceX's private market investors expected, after watching SpaceX grow its launch cadence twice as fast (up 38% year over year). Still, when you consider that fully two out of every three SpaceX rockets launched last year launched for "free" -- carrying SpaceX's own satellites up for Starlink -- the fact that launch revenue grew any amount at all is pretty impressive.

SpaceX Starlink

So how did SpaceX make up the difference, and end up generating almost exactly what Payload predicted for its total revenue last year, despite underwhelming on launch revenue growth?

One word answers the question: Starlink.

Image source: Payload Space.

Between selling terminals and providing service (including the new Starshield service for the U.S. government), Payload estimated Starlink would generate $6.8 billion in 2024 revenue for SpaceX.

It actually did about 20% more than that.

Starlink doubled in size last year, doubling the number of internet customers it serves, growing revenue 95%, and thus adding $8.2 billion to the $4.2 billion in launch revenue SpaceX made last year. And here's what's important to any investors angling to participate in a SpaceX or Starlink initial public offering: 59% of Starlink's customers resided in the U.S. in 2023, but Payload says a majority of Starlink customers (52%) now reside outside the U.S. Meaning Starlink is growing faster internationally now than it is here at home.

Given that Starlink charges lower subscription rates internationally, you might expect that fact to weigh on revenue growth -- and it did! -- but not by much. Subscribers grew 100%, and revenue still grew 95%.

Throw in a final $720 million or so in revenue from SpaceX's "non-core" contracts, including building a lunar lander for NASA and helping it design new spacesuits, and also developing technologies for in-orbit refueling, and SpaceX ended 2024 with just over $13.1 billion, Payload estimates -- just 1.5% short of the $13.3 billion Payload predicted.

So how much will SpaceX grow in 2025? Payload didn't say in this particular report, but if history is any guide, it should have a new forecast out any month now, so stay tuned.

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Rich Smith has positions in Rocket Lab USA. The Motley Fool recommends Rocket Lab USA. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.