Why Eli Lilly Stock Popped on Thursday

Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) stock inched 2.5% higher through 9:50 a.m. ET Thursday after beating on the top and bottom lines in this morning's Q4 earnings report.

Heading into the report, analysts forecast Lilly would earn $5.08 per share on sales of $13.4 billion. As it turns out, Lilly earned $5.32 per share in Q4, and sales were $13.5 billion.

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Eli Lilly's Q4 earnings

Driven by strong demand for its Mounjaro and Zepbound GLP-1 drugs, Lilly grew its Q4 sales 45% year over year. But sales of non GLP-1 drugs (which Lilly refers to as "non-incretin") weren't too shabby either, growing 20%.

Earnings did even better, more than doubling to $4.88 per share when calculated according to generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). That's not quite as good as "$5.32," which it turns out was a non-GAAP number. But 102% year-over-year growth is still fantastic.

Moreover, Q4's performance indicates growth is still accelerating at Lilly. Full-year sales grew only 32%, to $45 billion, and GAAP earnings per share were up 102% for the year (just like for the quarter) at $11.71.

Is Eli Lilly stock a buy?

CEO David Ricks characterized Lilly's 2024 performance as "highly successful." And 2025 should be even better. Lilly sees full-year 2025 sales growing to anywhere from $58 billion to $61 billion, representing sales growth of as much as 35.5%. GAAP earnings should range from $22.05 to $23.55 per share this year, and non-GAAP earnings will be even better.

That's not 102% annual earnings growth, granted. But at the top of the range, it does imply that Lilly could grow its earnings 101%. And taken at the midpoint of guidance, Lilly appears to be predicting an earnings beat for the coming year. Most analysts are forecasting only $22.69 per-share profit this year.

With Lilly stock priced at about 37 times current year earnings, and still doubling those earnings every year, there's a strong case to be made that Lilly stock remains a buy.

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Rich Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.