Rivian's Deliveries Rebound. Is the Stock a Buy in 2025?

The bulls and bears have been in a good old-fashioned wrestling match with Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ: RIVN) stock over the past year, each landing some punches. For every big win, such as Rivian's joint venture with Volkswagen, and its Department of Energy (DoE) loan approval -- both worth billions -- there were production snags, cash burn, delivery disappointments, and a lack of 2025 launches or catalysts.

The last punch was landed by the bulls, with Rivian's fourth-quarter production and deliveries topping estimates, sending its stock soaring over 24% last Friday. Let's look at how the stock has reacted over the past year, and what the latest bullish development means for investors.

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Roller coaster

That wrestling match between the bulls and bears has Rivian's stock chart looking like a roller coaster, with a steep dive to start 2024 before rebounding mid-summer, followed by another dive and yet another rebound to finish the year. What a ride.

With that setting the stage, let's dig into the numbers. During the fourth quarter, Rivian produced 12,727 vehicles, down roughly 27% compared to the prior year. Deliveries checked in with a 2% gain to 14,183 vehicles. Those were within, or better than, the range estimates that management provided.

For the year, Rivian produced just under 49,500 vehicles and delivered just over 51,500. Guidance for production was 47,000 to 49,000 vehicles, and for deliveries, it was 50,500 to 52,000 vehicles.

Data source: Rivian press releases. Chart by author.

You can see the effect the supply snag caused, and the following rebound, but let's look at two other important takeaways.

What the numbers mean

More important than perhaps even the production and delivery numbers was what they meant: The supply chain disruption is officially over, per management. The shortage of the shared component between the R1 and RCV platforms, the root of the original problem, is no longer a constraint on production. That leaves the door open for growth in 2025 -- assuming demand is there.

The other important takeaway in these numbers is that the production and delivery levels should modestly support gross margins during the fourth quarter, with more cars going through the assembly plant at lower fixed costs. That's great news for investors who have been anxiously waiting to see whether the company can still generate positive gross profits for the fourth quarter despite supply snags.

Is Rivian a buy?

That's the million-dollar question, and it likely depends on what type of investor you are. Rivian is likely too speculative and volatile for conservative investors, and it should remain a small position of just about any portfolio.

However, Rivian isn't going the way of Fisker, and it has notched some serious victories with the Volkswagen joint venture and DoE loan. 2025 might also bring investors a good time to start a position, as there are few catalysts and zero vehicle launches until 2026. The stock could lag the market without much news and with a potentially softening electric vehicle market if Federal tax credits are rolled back.

What we do know is that its fourth-quarter production and deliveries were solid, and the takeaways were even better. Stay tuned for the company's fourth-quarter conference call on Feb. 20 for future delivery guidance. It will be our first hint of management's expectations for the new year.

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Daniel Miller has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.