Here's What I Think the Fed Will Do With Interest Rates in 2025 -- And 2 Stocks That Could Be Winners

Over the past few months, expectations for interest rates in 2025 have changed. Thanks to relatively strong economic data, inflation that is still a little too high, and the Federal Reserve's commentary, the median expectation has gone from about 4-5 quarter-point rate cuts in 2025 to just one, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Recently, I wrote an article about bold predictions for 2025, one of which is that the Fed will end up cutting rates by a full percentage point this year. In a nutshell, I see economic uncertainty and inflation close to the 2% target, causing the Fed to be a little more aggressive.

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While many sectors aren't particularly rate-sensitive, a few are. Financial services and real estate stocks are two examples that could benefit tremendously from lower-than-expected rates. And some stocks could benefit more than others. Here are two stocks that could be big winners in 2025 if I'm right.

EPR Properties

EPR Properties (NYSE: EPR) is a real estate investment trust, or REIT, that specializes in experiential properties. It owns movie theaters, eat-and-play businesses (TopGolf is a major tenant), waterparks, ski resorts, and more.

To be clear, pretty much every REIT is sensitive to interest rates. Not only do lower rates mean lower borrowing costs, but falling rates tend to push REIT dividend yields lower, creating upward pressure on their stock prices.

EPR could be a particularly big winner because of its growth strategy. Management sees a $100 billion addressable market opportunity, but the cost of capital is a big limiting factor. In short, EPR doesn't want to take on more debt at the current interest rates or issue new equity while its share price is relatively low. If rates fall faster than expected, it could lead to a greater appetite for growth.

At its current stock price, EPR has a 7.7% dividend yield, which is well covered by the company's profits. So, not only does EPR have long-term upside potential in its share price, but you'll also get paid nicely for your patience in the meantime.

SoFi

Most banks are likely to benefit from falling interest rates. Deposit costs have increased significantly over the past couple of years, and this has put pressure on interest margins. However, online-based banks like SoFi (NASDAQ: SOFI) have higher deposit costs than brick-and-mortar banks and could be particularly big winners.

In SoFi's case, the average rate paid by its interest-earning assets (mostly loans) is 9.35%. This is significantly higher than most banks, as SoFi primarily relies on personal loans. Meanwhile, the bank's average deposit cost is about 4.2% and generally moves along with the Fed's rate moves. So, the simple explanation is that if rates fall in 2025, its deposit cost should fall accordingly. But the loans on its balance sheet generally have multiyear terms, so the average yield would fall more slowly than the deposit cost, leading to higher margins.

In addition, lower rates would likely lead to higher demand for personal loans, which could help SoFi maintain (or even accelerate) its growth momentum. There are other reasons I'm optimistic about SoFi as we head into 2025. Even at its scale, it is still growing its membership base at a 35% year-over-year pace, and the bank is growing its profitability quickly, to name a few.

Not the lowest-risk stocks in their sectors

To be perfectly clear, if you have a relatively low risk tolerance, there are stocks in the real estate and financial sectors that are probably a better fit for your portfolio than these two. EPR has some major risk factors to be aware of, especially its high level of exposure to the movie theater industry, and SoFi is a fast-growing company that needs to keep its momentum up to justify its valuation.

Having said that, both are solid businesses led by management teams with impressive track records of execution in a variety of environments. If I'm right about interest rates, both could end up having an excellent 2025.

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Matt Frankel has positions in EPR Properties and SoFi Technologies. The Motley Fool recommends EPR Properties. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.