Could Buying Apple Stock Today Set You Up for Life?

Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), a personal devices and technology behemoth, has set many investors up for life over the years. The stock has returned over 250,000% since 1980. A one-time $1,000 investment back then would be worth over $2.5 million today! The company evolved steadily over the years before striking gold with the iPhone in 2007, essentially defining the business Apple is today.

But now it could be fair to ponder whether Apple still has enough juice to build substantial wealth for new investors. After all, Apple is worth over $3.8 trillion today, and over 2.2 billion people worldwide use iOS devices.

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Apple may be past its prime growth era, but it's a uniquely remarkable business that investors shouldn't be too quick to write off.

Here is what investors might expect from the stock moving forward.

Can Apple capture lightning in a bottle again?

I don't think it's exaggerating to say the iPhone changed the world. It blew the notion that a cellphone needed physical keys out of the water. The iPhone is primarily responsible for Apple being what it is today. Apple generated $391 billion in revenue in 2024, with just over half ($201 billion) coming from iPhone sales and another $96 billion from subscription services -- primarily used on iPhones.

Apple traditionally releases a new iPhone annually, but it has seemingly been more challenging to sell customers on upgrading to new devices in recent years. Apple released its first iPhone for 5G wireless networks in late 2020, and revenue has plateaued since that upgrade cycle.

AAPL Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts.

This doesn't necessarily spell the end of Apple's growth or the iPhone itself. Apple has become famous for how sticky its ecosystem is, so there's a good chance that loyal Apple users will continue using iOS devices, upgrading as needed over time. However, Apple probably needs a new home run to spark the growth needed to generate similar investment returns to its storied past performance.

Apple launched a high-end augmented reality headset, the Apple Vision Pro, in early 2024, but it has reportedly cut production nearly in half since launch due to weak sales. Apple introduced artificial intelligence (AI) software as part of this year's iPhone release (Apple Intelligence), but reports indicate that it hasn't moved the needle with customers, either.

Apple's financial engineering puts a solid floor on the stock

It's hard to count Apple out, because it has immense resources and a loyal user base. All it takes is something that works, and Apple could win big again, because it can grow a new product quickly if it's popular with users. Plus, Apple is arguably the world's best company in financial engineering (the good kind).

In other words, Apple uses its existing profits to create shareholder value. This year, the company generated $108 billion in free cash flow from its $391 billion in revenue. Apple funds a dividend that it has raised for 12 consecutive years. It also spends billions of dollars to repurchase shares to reduce its share count and increase its per-share profits. That's why Apple's revenue has grown 95% over the past decade, while earnings per share have increased by over 227%.

Higher earnings per share support a higher share price. Apple could still be a productive long-term investment, even without significant revenue growth, as long as it continues to generate cash flow from its existing business. Services are Apple's fastest-growing and most profitable revenue segment, which bodes well for the future.

It might not be the right time to buy shares

Apple's ability to engineer earnings per share growth is impressive, but it does not entirely replace the need for genuine revenue growth.

Investors should be careful not to overpay for Apple stock while the company struggles to find a new catalyst. It seems the market has priced optimism into Apple stock that Apple Intelligence would fill that need. The stock's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has floated to its highest levels in years.

AAPL PE Ratio data by YCharts.

Even using 2025 earnings estimates, the stock's forward P/E ratio is 34. If analyst estimates about Apple averaging 13% to 14% annual earnings growth over the next three to five years are accurate, that's steep. The resulting price/earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio of 2.5 is about the maximum I'd pay for a high-quality stock like Apple. A ratio like this leaves investors exposed to downside risk if the company doesn't deliver on expectations.

Apple is a great company, but it will be more challenging for the stock to generate big-time returns from its current size and valuation without a new game-changing growth catalyst. Until that arrives, investors should temper their expectations and approach the stock cautiously.

Should you invest $1,000 in Apple right now?

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Justin Pope has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Apple. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.