Why Intel Stock Popped on Monday

Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) stock gained 4.1% through 9:45 a.m. ET Monday morning after CNBC reported this morning that the U.S. Commerce Department is close to awarding Intel an $8 billion subsidy to assist with expanding its semiconductor chip operations.

The Wall Street Journal had previously reported (last week) that this grant was on the way.

Good news, bad news

One quirk to this story is that last week, WSJ indicated Intel was in line for an $8.5 billion grant for factory-building, on top of a separate $3 billion award to build chip plants geared to production of semiconductors for the U.S. military. CNBC notes that the government appears to have shaved down the size of the first grant by $500 million, to $8 billion, "due to uncertainties about Intel's ability to execute on its investment commitment, and because of Intel's shifting technology roadmap and customer demand."

Either way, Intel could really use the cash. The company has racked up $16 billion in losses already over the last 12 months, and burned through $15.1 billion in negative free cash flow, and its revenue declined again last quarter.

As CNBC points out, Intel's planning to sell off assets and lay off up to 15,000 workers to conserve cash.

Is Intel stock a buy?

The $8 billion in government cash will help, but it won't solve Intel's problems -- not by a long shot. True, analysts polled by S&P Global Market Intelligence expect Intel to return to generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) profitability sometime next year. But Wall Street anticipates Intel continuing to burn cash, with negative free cash flow exceeding $11 billion over the next three years. It's not till 2028 that analysts think Intel will be back to health and able to generate cash on its own to keep its business running.

Meanwhile, debt will continue to pile up (Intel owes $26 billion and counting), and share dilution is a distinct possibility. Subsidies or no subsidies, it's hard to call Intel stock a buy.

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Rich Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Intel. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: short February 2025 $27 calls on Intel. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.