Disappointed in Your 2025 Social Security COLA? Here's Why You Shouldn't Be.

Source The Motley Fool

On Oct. 10, the Social Security Administration (SSA) dropped a bombshell by announcing that monthly benefits would be rising by 2.5% in 2025. That's a considerably lower cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, than 2024's 3.2% increase. And it's also the smallest Social Security COLA to arrive since 2021 when benefits rose by just 1.3%.

But while you may be disappointed in your 2025 Social Security COLA, a 2.5% raise actually isn't so bad. Here's why.

A person at a laptop in their home.

Image source: Getty Images.

1. It's a sign of cooling inflation

You may not be thrilled to learn that your monthly Social Security checks are only getting a 2.5% boost. But you should know that a smaller Social Security COLA is a sign of slowing inflation. And cooling inflation could benefit your finances in a very big way.

When inflation slows down, it doesn't necessarily lead to lower prices for common goods and services. But what's likely to happen is that in the coming year, those costs will rise at a slower pace, leading to some degree of financial relief.

Of course, one caveat is that Social Security COLAs are based on past inflation, not future inflation. In other words, 2025's Social Security COLA is based on inflation data from 2024, not 2025. We can't know what inflation will look like in 2025 ahead of time.

However, what we do know is that the Federal Reserve plans to move forward with interest rate cuts in the coming months. That's likely to make consumer borrowing less expensive, which should lead to an uptick in demand.

And when consumer demand matches supply or outpaces it, that tends to lead to lower costs. So all told, a 2.5% raise in 2025 may go further than expected.

2. It's fairly in line with the average COLA over the past 10 years

A 2.5% Social Security COLA might seem stingy compared to recent raises. Not only did benefits increase 3.2% at the start of 2024, but in 2023, they rose a whopping 8.7%. And the year before that, they rose 5.9%.

But over the past 10 years, the average Social Security COLA amounts to 2.75%. So a 2.5% increase isn't so far off from that target.

Furthermore, there have been times in the past when Social Security recipients got no COLA at all. So in that context, a 2.5% raise isn't something to bemoan.

Be realistic about Social Security COLAs

Generally speaking, the role of Social Security COLAs is to help beneficiaries maintain their buying power. But you shouldn't expect any given COLA you receive to help you improve your buying power or your financial situation in general. If that's your goal, then you'll need to look beyond Social Security.

You may, for example, need to find part-time work to boost your savings and increase your capacity to cover your bills. Or, you may need to shed some expenses that are eating up a lot of your income.

But even during periods when Social Security COLAs are much higher, the best you should hope for is a comparable amount of buying power from the year before and nothing more. Recognizing that should also help put 2025's COLA in perspective.

The $22,924 Social Security bonus most retirees completely overlook

If you're like most Americans, you're a few years (or more) behind on your retirement savings. But a handful of little-known "Social Security secrets" could help ensure a boost in your retirement income. For example: one easy trick could pay you as much as $22,924 more... each year! Once you learn how to maximize your Social Security benefits, we think you could retire confidently with the peace of mind we're all after. Simply click here to discover how to learn more about these strategies.

View the "Social Security secrets" »

The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
Gold ends three-week slide at the $4,400 line — eight straight days of ETF inflows vs a 5% 10-year and a 100 dollarSpot gold closed Friday at $4,378.39, up 0.84% on the day and about 0.8% for the week — its first weekly gain in four weeks — with the intraday high of $4,399.67 leaving it 33 cents shy of the $4,400 line. Gold ETFs have now logged eight straight sessions of inflows, but with the 10-year back above 5% and the dollar index near 100, here is what decides whether this is a reversal or a bounce.
Author  Suzie
Sep 20, Sun
Spot gold closed Friday at $4,378.39, up 0.84% on the day and about 0.8% for the week — its first weekly gain in four weeks — with the intraday high of $4,399.67 leaving it 33 cents shy of the $4,400 line. Gold ETFs have now logged eight straight sessions of inflows, but with the 10-year back above 5% and the dollar index near 100, here is what decides whether this is a reversal or a bounce.
placeholder
WTI (USOIL) Is down 2.13% on Sep 22: What Is Driving the Move?WTI (USOIL) is down 2.13% at Sep 22 05:55(ET), now at $89.999, with a 7-day down of 12.84%.What is driving WTI (USOIL)’s stock price down today?The retreat in US crude oil benchmark prices was primari
Author  TradingKey
Sep 22, Tue
WTI (USOIL) is down 2.13% at Sep 22 05:55(ET), now at $89.999, with a 7-day down of 12.84%.What is driving WTI (USOIL)’s stock price down today?The retreat in US crude oil benchmark prices was primari
placeholder
October hike odds climb toward 60% as Goldman and BofA both flip — what Warsh's "dose of accommodation" really changedRate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
Author  Irene Q.
Yesterday 06: 22
Rate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
placeholder
Memory chips surge, Nasdaq notches a second straight record close — why the Dow fell 185 points anywayMicron gained 5%, SanDisk 6.8%, Seagate 4% and Western Digital 3% as the memory complex led the Nasdaq Composite to a second consecutive record close of 27,244.28. But the Dow fell 185 points as JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Schwab slid more than 3% each — a split tape that says more about positioning than about the economy.
Author  Irene Q.
Yesterday 06: 51
Micron gained 5%, SanDisk 6.8%, Seagate 4% and Western Digital 3% as the memory complex led the Nasdaq Composite to a second consecutive record close of 27,244.28. But the Dow fell 185 points as JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Schwab slid more than 3% each — a split tape that says more about positioning than about the economy.
placeholder
Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD drifts toward $4.300 with bears gaining tractionGold (XAU/USD) retraces Tuesday’s gains on Wednesday and drifts lower, approaching the $4,300 area as the US Dollar Index (DXY) rallies further amid high US Treasury yields.
Author  FXStreet
21 hours ago
Gold (XAU/USD) retraces Tuesday’s gains on Wednesday and drifts lower, approaching the $4,300 area as the US Dollar Index (DXY) rallies further amid high US Treasury yields.
goTop
quote