Disappointed in Your 2025 Social Security COLA? Here's Why You Shouldn't Be.

Source The Motley Fool

On Oct. 10, the Social Security Administration (SSA) dropped a bombshell by announcing that monthly benefits would be rising by 2.5% in 2025. That's a considerably lower cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, than 2024's 3.2% increase. And it's also the smallest Social Security COLA to arrive since 2021 when benefits rose by just 1.3%.

But while you may be disappointed in your 2025 Social Security COLA, a 2.5% raise actually isn't so bad. Here's why.

A person at a laptop in their home.

Image source: Getty Images.

1. It's a sign of cooling inflation

You may not be thrilled to learn that your monthly Social Security checks are only getting a 2.5% boost. But you should know that a smaller Social Security COLA is a sign of slowing inflation. And cooling inflation could benefit your finances in a very big way.

When inflation slows down, it doesn't necessarily lead to lower prices for common goods and services. But what's likely to happen is that in the coming year, those costs will rise at a slower pace, leading to some degree of financial relief.

Of course, one caveat is that Social Security COLAs are based on past inflation, not future inflation. In other words, 2025's Social Security COLA is based on inflation data from 2024, not 2025. We can't know what inflation will look like in 2025 ahead of time.

However, what we do know is that the Federal Reserve plans to move forward with interest rate cuts in the coming months. That's likely to make consumer borrowing less expensive, which should lead to an uptick in demand.

And when consumer demand matches supply or outpaces it, that tends to lead to lower costs. So all told, a 2.5% raise in 2025 may go further than expected.

2. It's fairly in line with the average COLA over the past 10 years

A 2.5% Social Security COLA might seem stingy compared to recent raises. Not only did benefits increase 3.2% at the start of 2024, but in 2023, they rose a whopping 8.7%. And the year before that, they rose 5.9%.

But over the past 10 years, the average Social Security COLA amounts to 2.75%. So a 2.5% increase isn't so far off from that target.

Furthermore, there have been times in the past when Social Security recipients got no COLA at all. So in that context, a 2.5% raise isn't something to bemoan.

Be realistic about Social Security COLAs

Generally speaking, the role of Social Security COLAs is to help beneficiaries maintain their buying power. But you shouldn't expect any given COLA you receive to help you improve your buying power or your financial situation in general. If that's your goal, then you'll need to look beyond Social Security.

You may, for example, need to find part-time work to boost your savings and increase your capacity to cover your bills. Or, you may need to shed some expenses that are eating up a lot of your income.

But even during periods when Social Security COLAs are much higher, the best you should hope for is a comparable amount of buying power from the year before and nothing more. Recognizing that should also help put 2025's COLA in perspective.

The $22,924 Social Security bonus most retirees completely overlook

If you're like most Americans, you're a few years (or more) behind on your retirement savings. But a handful of little-known "Social Security secrets" could help ensure a boost in your retirement income. For example: one easy trick could pay you as much as $22,924 more... each year! Once you learn how to maximize your Social Security benefits, we think you could retire confidently with the peace of mind we're all after. Simply click here to discover how to learn more about these strategies.

View the "Social Security secrets" »

The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
Gold ends three-week slide at the $4,400 line — eight straight days of ETF inflows vs a 5% 10-year and a 100 dollarSpot gold closed Friday at $4,378.39, up 0.84% on the day and about 0.8% for the week — its first weekly gain in four weeks — with the intraday high of $4,399.67 leaving it 33 cents shy of the $4,400 line. Gold ETFs have now logged eight straight sessions of inflows, but with the 10-year back above 5% and the dollar index near 100, here is what decides whether this is a reversal or a bounce.
Author  Suzie
Sep 20, Sun
Spot gold closed Friday at $4,378.39, up 0.84% on the day and about 0.8% for the week — its first weekly gain in four weeks — with the intraday high of $4,399.67 leaving it 33 cents shy of the $4,400 line. Gold ETFs have now logged eight straight sessions of inflows, but with the 10-year back above 5% and the dollar index near 100, here is what decides whether this is a reversal or a bounce.
placeholder
October hike odds climb toward 60% as Goldman and BofA both flip — what Warsh's "dose of accommodation" really changedRate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
Author  Irene Q.
Sep 23, Wed
Rate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
placeholder
US input costs rose at the fastest pace in four years — the September flash PMI beat is an inflation story, not a growth storyUS September flash PMIs came in far above expectations, with the composite at 58.4, a five-year high. But the detail that moved markets was input cost inflation at its fastest since October 2022, driven by fuel, transport and supply shortages. Brent is back above $100 and the 10-year Treasury yield has hit its highest since 2007.
Author  Suzie
Sep 24, Thu
US September flash PMIs came in far above expectations, with the composite at 58.4, a five-year high. But the detail that moved markets was input cost inflation at its fastest since October 2022, driven by fuel, transport and supply shortages. Brent is back above $100 and the 10-year Treasury yield has hit its highest since 2007.
placeholder
Brent edges toward $99 as Trump rejects Iran's Hormuz proposal — why the war-risk premium won't rebuildBrent crude rose 0.92% to $98.51 and WTI gained 1.15% to $93.51 after President Trump rejected Iran's seven-day proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. But both benchmarks remain about 12% below their early-September highs, because supply never actually stopped. Hormuz flows ran at 33.7 million barrels this week, in line with the prior week, and Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline restarted on September 22.
Author  Suzie
20 hours ago
Brent crude rose 0.92% to $98.51 and WTI gained 1.15% to $93.51 after President Trump rejected Iran's seven-day proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. But both benchmarks remain about 12% below their early-September highs, because supply never actually stopped. Hormuz flows ran at 33.7 million barrels this week, in line with the prior week, and Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline restarted on September 22.
placeholder
Four jobs reports in five days: what JOLTS, ADP, claims and the September payrolls mean for the October Fed decisionThe US labour market faces its densest data week of the month. JOLTS job openings land Tuesday (7.2 million expected), ADP on Wednesday (70,000 expected), initial claims on Thursday and the September non-farm payrolls on Friday (100,000 expected, down from 162,000). Markets price a 64%-70% chance of another quarter-point Fed hike on October 28. The dollar index sits at 100.77 and the S&P 500 at 7,729.8.
Author  Mitrade
20 hours ago
The US labour market faces its densest data week of the month. JOLTS job openings land Tuesday (7.2 million expected), ADP on Wednesday (70,000 expected), initial claims on Thursday and the September non-farm payrolls on Friday (100,000 expected, down from 162,000). Markets price a 64%-70% chance of another quarter-point Fed hike on October 28. The dollar index sits at 100.77 and the S&P 500 at 7,729.8.
goTop
quote