Disappointed in Your 2025 Social Security COLA? Here's Why You Shouldn't Be.

Source The Motley Fool

On Oct. 10, the Social Security Administration (SSA) dropped a bombshell by announcing that monthly benefits would be rising by 2.5% in 2025. That's a considerably lower cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, than 2024's 3.2% increase. And it's also the smallest Social Security COLA to arrive since 2021 when benefits rose by just 1.3%.

But while you may be disappointed in your 2025 Social Security COLA, a 2.5% raise actually isn't so bad. Here's why.

A person at a laptop in their home.

Image source: Getty Images.

1. It's a sign of cooling inflation

You may not be thrilled to learn that your monthly Social Security checks are only getting a 2.5% boost. But you should know that a smaller Social Security COLA is a sign of slowing inflation. And cooling inflation could benefit your finances in a very big way.

When inflation slows down, it doesn't necessarily lead to lower prices for common goods and services. But what's likely to happen is that in the coming year, those costs will rise at a slower pace, leading to some degree of financial relief.

Of course, one caveat is that Social Security COLAs are based on past inflation, not future inflation. In other words, 2025's Social Security COLA is based on inflation data from 2024, not 2025. We can't know what inflation will look like in 2025 ahead of time.

However, what we do know is that the Federal Reserve plans to move forward with interest rate cuts in the coming months. That's likely to make consumer borrowing less expensive, which should lead to an uptick in demand.

And when consumer demand matches supply or outpaces it, that tends to lead to lower costs. So all told, a 2.5% raise in 2025 may go further than expected.

2. It's fairly in line with the average COLA over the past 10 years

A 2.5% Social Security COLA might seem stingy compared to recent raises. Not only did benefits increase 3.2% at the start of 2024, but in 2023, they rose a whopping 8.7%. And the year before that, they rose 5.9%.

But over the past 10 years, the average Social Security COLA amounts to 2.75%. So a 2.5% increase isn't so far off from that target.

Furthermore, there have been times in the past when Social Security recipients got no COLA at all. So in that context, a 2.5% raise isn't something to bemoan.

Be realistic about Social Security COLAs

Generally speaking, the role of Social Security COLAs is to help beneficiaries maintain their buying power. But you shouldn't expect any given COLA you receive to help you improve your buying power or your financial situation in general. If that's your goal, then you'll need to look beyond Social Security.

You may, for example, need to find part-time work to boost your savings and increase your capacity to cover your bills. Or, you may need to shed some expenses that are eating up a lot of your income.

But even during periods when Social Security COLAs are much higher, the best you should hope for is a comparable amount of buying power from the year before and nothing more. Recognizing that should also help put 2025's COLA in perspective.

The $22,924 Social Security bonus most retirees completely overlook

If you're like most Americans, you're a few years (or more) behind on your retirement savings. But a handful of little-known "Social Security secrets" could help ensure a boost in your retirement income. For example: one easy trick could pay you as much as $22,924 more... each year! Once you learn how to maximize your Social Security benefits, we think you could retire confidently with the peace of mind we're all after. Simply click here to discover how to learn more about these strategies.

View the "Social Security secrets" »

The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
US Sept. PCE Preview: Inflation May Heat Up Again, How Will US Stocks, the Dollar, and Gold React?This Thursday (October 29), the US will release the September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. However, since the PCE report will be released after the Federal Reserve
Author  TradingKey
11 hours ago
This Thursday (October 29), the US will release the September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. However, since the PCE report will be released after the Federal Reserve
placeholder
Brent's $115 front month sits $4.6 above January — the $14 spread to WTI is the supply-risk premiumDecember Brent trades at $115.29 while January is $110.71, a $4.58 backwardation. The December Brent-WTI spread is $14.2, versus a $3-5 normal. That gap, not the headline, is where the Middle East supply risk is priced. Here is what the curve says, why the December contract's expiry on October 30 will mechanically cut the headline by $4.6, and the 108.81 neckline that decides the next move.
Author  Irene Q.
15 hours ago
December Brent trades at $115.29 while January is $110.71, a $4.58 backwardation. The December Brent-WTI spread is $14.2, versus a $3-5 normal. That gap, not the headline, is where the Middle East supply risk is priced. Here is what the curve says, why the December contract's expiry on October 30 will mechanically cut the headline by $4.6, and the 108.81 neckline that decides the next move.
placeholder
Bitcoin is back above $80,000 — but 75% of the bounce was shorts, not buyersBitcoin trades at $80,669, back above the $80,000 line after touching $79,145 on October 24. But 75.4% of the last 24 hours of futures liquidations were shorts, CME open interest fell 36,545 BTC in October, and spot ETFs lost $773.5 million on October 22-23. Price is up; positioning is down. Here is why the bounce is a squeeze, and the four things that would make it real.
Author  Suzie
15 hours ago
Bitcoin trades at $80,669, back above the $80,000 line after touching $79,145 on October 24. But 75.4% of the last 24 hours of futures liquidations were shorts, CME open interest fell 36,545 BTC in October, and spot ETFs lost $773.5 million on October 22-23. Price is up; positioning is down. Here is why the bounce is a squeeze, and the four things that would make it real.
placeholder
Gold rises above $4,050 ahead of Fed rate decisionGold price (XAU/USD) jumps to around $4,065 during the early Asian session on Wednesday, bolstered by lower oil prices. Traders await the Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy meeting later on Wednesday for signals on ‌the future path of US interest rates.
Author  FXStreet
20 hours ago
Gold price (XAU/USD) jumps to around $4,065 during the early Asian session on Wednesday, bolstered by lower oil prices. Traders await the Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy meeting later on Wednesday for signals on ‌the future path of US interest rates.
placeholder
Fed October Rate Decision Preview: Rate Hike Pause Has Become Consensus, How Will US Stocks, Dollar, and Gold React?The Federal Reserve will announce its October interest rate decision at 14:00 Eastern Time on October 28, and Fed Chair Warsh will hold a press conference at 14:30. Markets currently wide
Author  TradingKey
Yesterday 10: 21
The Federal Reserve will announce its October interest rate decision at 14:00 Eastern Time on October 28, and Fed Chair Warsh will hold a press conference at 14:30. Markets currently wide
goTop
quote