US Dollar recovers further with DXY back above 103.00
- The Greenback recovers initial losses as the market rout continues.
- Equities are plunging over 3% to 5% lower on average.
- The US Dollar Index trades near 103.00 and sees a technical rejection play out.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, recovers initial losses and trades near 103.00 at the time of writing on Monday after an earliest move lower. Markets were selling the US Dollar again as Equities, Yields and precious metals dropped lower. The concern comes after US President Donald Trump said over the weekend that he will be sticking to his tariffs plan, while financial backer and billionaire Bill Ackman warned the President that he is losing business leaders’ confidence.
On the economic front, all eyes will be on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data this week. The March inflation gauge will be the first release where some impact from the Trump administration might already be expected. In several weekly summaries issued on social media, the White House proclaims that Trump has successfully lowered prices on all food items, such as eggs or petrol at the pump. This can be seen and proven by the upcoming CPI release on Thursday.
Daily digest market movers: Soft start of the week
- At 15:30 GMT, the US Treasury will launch a 3-month and a 6-month bill.
- Founder and chief executive officer (CEO) of Pershing Square Capital Management William Albert Ackman asked President Trump on the social media platform X to pause the current trade tariffs in order to first broker a trade deal. Ackman warns that Trump is losing business leaders' confidence, Reuters reports. Ackman is considered as one of his most significant financial contributors in both terms.
- Red numbers not been seen for a long time in the Equity markets, with the Chinese Hang Seng closing off at -13%, European indexes facing on average more than 6% drops, and US futures trying to salvage the situation by only correcting around 3%.
- The CME FedWatch tool sees chances for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in May standing at 46.2%, shooting up from 33.3% on Friday as rate cut bets grow. For June, a rates-remaining-steady scenario is out of the options. Only rate cuts are being penciled in with a 53.5% chance of policy rate being cut to the 3.75%-4.00% range from the current 4.25%-4.50%.
- The US 10-year yields trade around 3.95%, off its fresh five-month low at 3.85%. The next low to be considered comes in at 3.69%, last seen at the beginning of October 2024.
US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Recovery rejected
A firm technical rejection unfolded in the DXY index at the start of the week in early Monday. The recovery on Friday could not cross back to the 103.18 pivotal level. Unfortunately, that is where the recovery stopped, meaning that 103.18 on is a level which US Dollar bears are heavily defending.
The first level to watch out for is thus 103.18, which was held as support throughout March and triggered a technical rejection on Friday. Above there, the 104.00 round level and the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 104.87 come into play.
On the downside, 101.90 is the first line of defense and it should be able to trigger a bounce as it has been able to hold the last two trading days. Maybe not on Monday, but in the coming days, a break below 101.90 could see a leg lower towards 100.00.
US Dollar Index: Daily Chart
US-China Trade War FAQs
Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living.
An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies.
The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
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