Fed's Barkin: Inflation may get stuck above Fed target
Source Fxstreet
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Richmond President Tom Barkin noted early during the US market session on Tuesday that while inflation appears to be coming down, it might still get stuck above the Fed's target levels.
Key highlights
The Federal Reserve is in a position to respond appropriately regardless of how the economy evolves.
The Fed's focus may turn to upside inflation risks or to downside employment risks, depending on how economy develops.
From here, the labor market might be fine or might continue to weaken.
Inflation might be coming under control, or might risk getting stuck above the Fed's 2% target.
The US economy looks pretty good and the labor market looks resilient.
The Fed has started the process of recalibrating interest rates to somewhat less restrictive levels.
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Recommended Articles
October hike odds climb toward 60% as Goldman and BofA both flip — what Warsh's "dose of accommodation" really changedRate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
Rate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
Strong profits, falling shares: bank earnings day one meets a memory-chip rout — with CPI and ASML aheadGoldman Sachs blew past estimates (EPS $17.01 vs $13.09 expected, profit +33%) while JPMorgan missed ($5.75 vs $5.93) and Wells Fargo fell 3% — yet the S&P 500 finished flat at 7,805.45, pinned below its record close as a memory-chip rout (SOX −2.67%, Micron under $1,000) kept the pressure on. Tonight brings the week's decider: US September CPI at 8:30 ET, then Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock and ASML before the open. Here are the levels, both cases, and the watch list.
Goldman Sachs blew past estimates (EPS $17.01 vs $13.09 expected, profit +33%) while JPMorgan missed ($5.75 vs $5.93) and Wells Fargo fell 3% — yet the S&P 500 finished flat at 7,805.45, pinned below its record close as a memory-chip rout (SOX −2.67%, Micron under $1,000) kept the pressure on. Tonight brings the week's decider: US September CPI at 8:30 ET, then Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock and ASML before the open. Here are the levels, both cases, and the watch list.
US September CPI recap: inflation hits 3.7% as core runs hot — is an October Fed hike back on the table?September CPI landed hot: headline 3.7% y/y, core 2.6% y/y and 0.3% m/m. October hike odds jumped from ~22% to ~37% — yet the dollar faded to 101.74, gold closed higher and the S&P 500 fell 1.11%. Here is the full repricing, the levels and what to watch next.
September CPI landed hot: headline 3.7% y/y, core 2.6% y/y and 0.3% m/m. October hike odds jumped from ~22% to ~37% — yet the dollar faded to 101.74, gold closed higher and the S&P 500 fell 1.11%. Here is the full repricing, the levels and what to watch next.
Gold defends $4,100 as BofA targets a break below $4,000 — why the Middle East bid is missingSpot gold flushed to $4,099.89, a whisker above October's $4,090 low, then rebounded to close at $4,138.25 (+0.82%) — even as US CPI ran hot. Bank of America sees gold below $4,000 within three months, citing shrinking demand and official-sector selling. Here are the levels, the drivers and what would flip the script.
Spot gold flushed to $4,099.89, a whisker above October's $4,090 low, then rebounded to close at $4,138.25 (+0.82%) — even as US CPI ran hot. Bank of America sees gold below $4,000 within three months, citing shrinking demand and official-sector selling. Here are the levels, the drivers and what would flip the script.
Get the latest gold price analysis, forex gold insights, and XAU/USD analysis for October 15, 2026. Read on for the details.
