EUR/USD is trading heavy below the 200-day moving average (1.0873). The risk is the ECB delivers a dovish 25 bp cut today which can further weigh on EUR, BBH FX analysts note.
“The ECB is widely expected to cut the key interest rate 25 bp to 3.25% (1:15pm London) and reiterate that it ‘is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.’
“However, ECB president Christine Lagarde will likely sound dovish during her post-meeting press conference (1:45pm London) because the Eurozone economy is stagnating, and inflation is undershooting the ECB’s 2% target.”
“Market is pricing-in almost 175 bp of easing over the next twelve months that would see the policy rate bottom near 1.75%.”