US NFP: Nonfarm Payrolls forecast to grow by 190K in June as Fed ponders rate-cut timing
- US Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to rise 190K in June, slowing from May’s 272K increase.
- The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Employment report at 12:30 GMT.
- The US Dollar awaits employment data after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish remarks on Tuesday.
With US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s Sintra appearance out of the way, all eyes now remain on top-tier Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for June, due on Friday at 12:30 GMT.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the US labor market data, which could offer cues on the timing of the Fed’s first interest-rate cut this year and the US Dollar’s (USD) next direction.
What to expect in the next Nonfarm Payrolls report?
The Nonfarm Payrolls report is set to show that the US economy created 190,000 jobs in June after having added 272,000 in May.
The Unemployment Rate will likely hold steady at 4.0% in the same period. Meanwhile, a closely-watched measure of wage inflation, Average Hourly Earnings, is seen increasing by 3.9% in the year through June following May’s growth of 4.1%.
Markets are set to analyze these key data sets closely, as they could provide a fresh guide to the possible timing of the Fed’s dovish pivot.
Markets scaled up their expectations for a Fed rate cut in September after Tuesday’s Chairman Jerome Powell’s commentary at the European Central Bank (ECB) Forum on Central Banking in Sintra.
Powell sounded quite optimistic about the recent encouraging inflation reports but said he needed more data before considering rate cuts. Markets perceived his acknowledgment of the progress in the disinflationary trend as dovish.
Meanwhile, the US private sector added 150,000 jobs in June, a modest decrease from the upwardly revised 157,000 figure in May, the ADP reported on Wednesday. The data missed the analysts’ estimates of a 160,000 job addition. It’s worth mentioning that NFP has outperformed ADP in nine out of the past ten months.
Fed Chair Powell’s dovish commentary, combined with weak US employment data, ramped up bets for a rate cut by the US central bank in September, with markets now seeing a 73% chance against a 64% probability seen early Tuesday.
Previewing the June employment situation report, BBH analysts said: “Bloomberg consensus is 190k vs. 272k in May, while its whisper number stands at 198k currently. For reference, the average gain over the past 12 months is 232k. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.0% even as the participation rate is expected to rise a tick to 62.6%. With the labor market in better alignment, the pace of wage growth will be a bigger driver of Fed expectations. Average hourly earnings are forecast to rise 0.3% MoM, with the YoY rate expected to fall two ticks to 3.9.”
How will US June Nonfarm Payrolls affect EUR/USD?
The return of the doves smashed the US Dollar across the board alongside the US Treasury bond yields, driving the EUR/USD pair briefly above the 1.0800 threshold. Attention now turns to the US NFP report to affirm the loosening labor market conditions and the disinflationary trend in wage inflation.
A stronger-than-expected NFP headline figure, along with hot wage inflation data, could push back against the renewed bets of a September Fed rate cut, offering a fresh life to the US Dollar. This, in turn, could trigger a correction in the EUR/USD pair toward 1.0700. However, if the US employment data strongly indicates labor market slack, the Greenback could see a fresh leg down on a potential confirmation that the Fed will lower rates in September. In such a case, EUR/USD could surge past the 1.0850 level.
Dhwani Mehta, Analyst at FXStreet, offers a brief technical outlook for EUR/USD:
“The EUR/USD pair is battling at around 1.0790, where the critical 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 100-day SMA coincide. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits above the 50 level, near 54, suggesting that upside potential remains intact.”
“Buyers need to find acceptance above the convergence of the 200-day and 100-day SMAs, for an extended recovery. The next topside barriers for EUR/USD will then be seen at the June 12 high of 1.0852 and the 1.0900 round figure. Conversely, the initial demand area is seen at 21-day SMA at 1.0746, below which the 1.0700 level will be tested en route to the June low of 1.0660,” Dhwani adds.
Economic Indicator
Nonfarm Payrolls
The Nonfarm Payrolls release presents the number of new jobs created in the US during the previous month in all non-agricultural businesses; it is released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The monthly changes in payrolls can be extremely volatile. The number is also subject to strong reviews, which can also trigger volatility in the Forex board. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish, although previous months' reviews and the Unemployment Rate are as relevant as the headline figure. The market's reaction, therefore, depends on how the market assesses all the data contained in the BLS report as a whole.
Read more.Next release: Fri Jul 05, 2024 12:30
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 190K
Previous: 272K
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
America’s monthly jobs report is considered the most important economic indicator for forex traders. Released on the first Friday following the reported month, the change in the number of positions is closely correlated with the overall performance of the economy and is monitored by policymakers. Full employment is one of the Federal Reserve’s mandates and it considers developments in the labor market when setting its policies, thus impacting currencies. Despite several leading indicators shaping estimates, Nonfarm Payrolls tend to surprise markets and trigger substantial volatility. Actual figures beating the consensus tend to be USD bullish.
Nonfarm Payrolls FAQs
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are part of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report. The Nonfarm Payrolls component specifically measures the change in the number of people employed in the US during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.
The Nonfarm Payrolls figure can influence the decisions of the Federal Reserve by providing a measure of how successfully the Fed is meeting its mandate of fostering full employment and 2% inflation. A relatively high NFP figure means more people are in employment, earning more money and therefore probably spending more. A relatively low Nonfarm Payrolls’ result, on the either hand, could mean people are struggling to find work. The Fed will typically raise interest rates to combat high inflation triggered by low unemployment, and lower them to stimulate a stagnant labor market.
Nonfarm Payrolls generally have a positive correlation with the US Dollar. This means when payrolls’ figures come out higher-than-expected the USD tends to rally and vice versa when they are lower. NFPs influence the US Dollar by virtue of their impact on inflation, monetary policy expectations and interest rates. A higher NFP usually means the Federal Reserve will be more tight in its monetary policy, supporting the USD.
Nonfarm Payrolls are generally negatively-correlated with the price of Gold. This means a higher-than-expected payrolls’ figure will have a depressing effect on the Gold price and vice versa. Higher NFP generally has a positive effect on the value of the USD, and like most major commodities Gold is priced in US Dollars. If the USD gains in value, therefore, it requires less Dollars to buy an ounce of Gold. Also, higher interest rates (typically helped higher NFPs) also lessen the attractiveness of Gold as an investment compared to staying in cash, where the money will at least earn interest.
Nonfarm Payrolls is only one component within a bigger jobs report and it can be overshadowed by the other components. At times, when NFP come out higher-than-forecast, but the Average Weekly Earnings is lower than expected, the market has ignored the potentially inflationary effect of the headline result and interpreted the fall in earnings as deflationary. The Participation Rate and the Average Weekly Hours components can also influence the market reaction, but only in seldom events like the “Great Resignation” or the Global Financial Crisis.
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