USD/JPY: Consolidation on the day – OCBC

USD/JPY was a touch softer, tracking UST yields lower while BoJ MPC (last Friday) hinted at continued policy normalization. Pair was last seen at 154.05, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

USD/JPY to trend lower for now

"Japanese economic data supports BoJ policy normalization. Wage growth pressure remains intact, alongside broadening services inflation. Tokyo core CPI, PPI, wages rose while labor market report also pointed to upward wage pressure with jobless rate easing, while trade unions are calling for another 5-6% wage increase at shunto wage negotiations for 2025."

"We still look for USD/JPY to trend lower, premised on Fed cut cycle while the BoJ has room to further pursue policy normalization. Bearish momentum intact while RSI fell. Consolidation likely with risks skewed to the downside. Support at 152.80 (200 DMA). Resistance at 156.90 (21 DMA), 158.80 (recent high)."