AUD/USD: Current price action seems to be the early stages of a recovery – UOB Group
Source Fxstreet
Australian Dollar (AUD) could break above 0.6305; the next major resistance at 0.6350 is likely out of reach for now. In the longer run, current price action is likely the early stages of a recovery phase that could potentially reach 0.6350, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.
Below 0.6190, the current momentum is going to fade
24-HOUR VIEW: “When AUD was at 0.6195 yesterday, we expected it to ‘trade in a 0.6165/0.6220 range.’ Instead of trading in a range, AUD jumped, surging to a high of 0.6287. The impulsive momentum is likely to outweigh the overbought conditions. Today, provided that 0.6205 (minor support is at 0.6240) is not breached, AUD could break above 0.6305. The next major resistance at 0.6350 is likely out of reach for now.”
1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We noted yesterday (20 Jan, spot at 0.6195) that the recent ‘buildup in upward momentum seems to have faded.’ We indicated that AUD ‘for the time being, AUD is likely to trade in a 0.6140/0.6245 range.’ Our shift to a neutral stance was ill-timed, as AUD lifted and broke the significant resistance at 0.6245. The current price action is likely the early stages of a recovery phase that could potentially reach 0.6350. To keep the momentum going, AUD must not break below 0.6190.”
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline this weekend, briefly erasing its 2025 gains and dipping below its year-opening value of $93,507. The cryptocurrency fell to a low of $93,029 on Sunday, representing a 25% drop from its all-time high in October. Although it has rebounded slightly to around $94,209, the pressures on the market remain significant.
The downturn occurred despite the reopening of the U.S. government on Thursday, which many had hoped would provide essential support for crypto markets. This year initially appeared promising for cryptocurrencies, particularly after the inauguration of President Donald Trump, who has established the most pro-crypto administration thus far. However, ongoing political tensions—including Trump's tariff strategies and the recent government shutdown, lasting a historic 43 days—have contributed to several rapid price pullbacks for Bitcoin throughout the year.
Market dynamics are also being influenced by Bitcoin whales—investors holding large amounts of Bitcoin—who have been offloading portions of their assets, consequently stalling price rallies even as positive regulatory developments emerge. Despite these sell-offs, analysts from Glassnode argue that this behavior aligns with typical patterns seen among long-term investors during the concluding stages of bull markets, suggesting it is not indicative of a mass exodus.
Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses.
Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
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