US Dollar gains as dovish Fed bets cool down
- The US Dollar clings to its latest gains with the DXY above 106.00.
- Expectations for additional interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have waned.
- Important US data releases this week will shape the outlook for monetary policy and forex.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the USD against a basket of six currencies, is clinging to its latest gains in the US session on Tuesday. Expectations for additional interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) have waned, and important US data releases in the coming weeks will shape the outlook for monetary policy. These include Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Retail Sales data later this week.
The DXY is anticipated to continue its uptrend, supported by strong US economic fundamentals. The upcoming release of inflation data and Retail Sales figures is expected to bolster the US Dollar. Despite profit-taking and easing labor conditions, the Fed remains optimistic about the economy, and the Greenback's overall trend remains positive.
Daily digest market movers: US Dollar rally continues, Fed easing expectations shift
- Fed easing expectations shift with the market pricing in only 70% odds of a follow-up cut in December.
- The swaps market is pricing in around 50% odds of a December cut, showing a significant shift from September's pricing.
- The market is now pricing in 75 to100 bps of total easing over the next 12 months.
- In addition, investors are pricing in a terminal rate near 3.5% compared to 2.5% in September.
- Fed officials are likely to reinforce the cautious tone this week.
DXY technical outlook: Greenback approaches overbought levels
The DXY index indicators lie deep in positive terrain, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) lies near 70. Its proximity to overbought levels suggests a potential for a pullback or consolidation in the near term. However, the overall technical outlook remains bullish, with indicators pointing to further upside potential.
In case of a correction, the 105.00-105.50 level might be used as a support to consolidate gains.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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