Dow Jones Industrial Average steps into another record high on Friday
- The Dow Jones climbed into another fresh peak after PCE inflation print.
- Headline PCE inflation eased closer to Fed targets in August.
- Coming up next week: PMI activity measures, NFP labor print.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rallied into another fresh record high on Friday, spurred higher by a cooler-than-expected print in the US Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) for August. Sentiment indicators also improved for September, and rate watchers will be pivoting to look ahead to next week’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.
The PCE price index rose 0.1% in August, and chalked in PCE inflation growth of just 2.2% YoY, easing to the key inflation indicator’s lowest level since March of 2021. Headline inflation figures continue to ease toward the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 2% target, but data watchers will note that the annualized core PCE print ticked higher for the year ended August, rising to 2.7% YoY from the previous 2.6%.
The University of Michigan’s (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index rose again in September, printing at 70.1 compared to the expected 69.3 and even higher than the previous month’s print of 69.0. The UoM’s 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectations survey also held steady at 3.1% as elevated inflation expectations at the consumer level remain pervasive.
With this week’s data docket in the books, Fed watchers will be looking ahead to the next key data print, next Friday’s NFP labor report. Markets will broadly be looking for ongoing strength is the US labor market to further quell concerns about a potential recession looming over the US economy. US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) business activity results are also expected early next week.
Dow Jones news
The Dow Jones leaned heavily into the bullish side on Friday, clipping a fresh record bid with most of the index’s individual stocks tilting into the green side. Only five of the Dow Jones’ constituent securities were stuck in the red for the day, with Amazon (AMZN) falling 1.5% to $188 per share. On the high end, Chevron (CVX) led the charge higher, rising 2.35% and climbing over the $145 per share level.
Dow Jones price forecast
The Dow Jones found a new record bid to wrap up the trading week, chalking in a new all-time high of 42,6365 before easing back below 42,500. Despite a regular stream of broken record highs, Dow Jones bulls are struggling to snag confident climbs, and bears are waiting just outside of the doors for an opportunity to drag price action back to the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 40,930.
Dow Jones daily chart
Dow Jones FAQs
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500.
Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions.
Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits.
There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
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