USD: All to play for in Philadelphia – ING

FX markets are marking out ranges as they wait for fresh inputs. Overnight we saw some better Chinese trade data, where exports surprised on the upside and imports disappointed as expected. While the large trade surplus might be good for the GDP figure, the fact that China's demand remains weak remains a problem for the rest of the world. Indeed, industrial metals remain under pressure and it looks like OPEC+ might be running out of ideas when it comes to stabilizing oil prices, ING’s Chris Turner notes.

Quiet day of FX trading ahead of the debate

“The US calendar is light today – just the NFIB small business optimism number and US data released late yesterday saw some exceptionally strong consumer credit readings for July. The credit readings serve as a reminder that, so far, the US consumer is alive and well and that the Fed may not have the data it needs to ‘front-load’ the easing cycle with a 50bp rate cut later this month.”

“Moving on to the main event for FX markets, tomorrow morning at 0300CET, 2100ET sees a 90-minute presidential debate between Harris and Trump. As more of the unknown entity, Kamala Harris arguably has more to prove to the US electorate. Currently, opinion polls across the nation, especially in swing states, have the pair neck-and-neck.”

“Should a clear winner emerge from the debate, expect the FX market to start ‘front-loading’ positions it would have taken after the election result in November. To that end, our Election Guide for FX Markets published yesterday should help determine which currencies outperform and underperform. Expect a quiet day of FX trading ahead of the debate.”