USD: Downside risks this week – ING

Source Fxstreet

Central banks and macro data have taken an unusual secondary role for FX markets as US politics, stock markets turmoil and some sizeable positioning adjustments generated volatility in some pairs inconsistent with macro developments, ING’s FX strategist Francesco Pesole notes.

A move below 104.0 for DXY is imminent

“In the US, the two main events of the week are the FOMC rate announcement on Wednesday and the July jobs report on Friday. The June dot plot projections look unreasonably hawkish given the recent data flow and market pricing, and we expect the Fed to pivot towards a more dovish stance in line with recent commentary and in anticipation of a potential September cut.”

“Markets are already pricing in easing quite aggressively in the US. A September cut is fully factored in and 68bp in total is expected by year-end. We can surely see markets adding easing bets across the curve following a dovish hold but we admit there is a chance that Fed Chair Jerome Powell errs on the side of caution and delivers a less dovish (and USD-positive) communication package this week.”

“Anyway, when adding the downside risks from jobs figures on Friday and a potential surprise hike by the BoJ, we have a bearish bias on DXY this week, and wouldn’t be surprised to see a move below 104.0.”

 

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
Bitcoin Price Bounces Back—Can It Finally Break Resistance?Bitcoin price started a recovery wave above the $83,500 zone. BTC is now consolidating and might struggle to settle above the $85,500 zone. Bitcoin started a decent recovery wave above the $83,500
Author  NewsBTC
Apr 02, Wed
Bitcoin price started a recovery wave above the $83,500 zone. BTC is now consolidating and might struggle to settle above the $85,500 zone. Bitcoin started a decent recovery wave above the $83,500
placeholder
U.S. March Nonfarm Payroll Preview: Even If Data Aligns with Expectations, Financial Markets May Not Escape the Fate of VolatilityOn 4 April 2025, the United States will release its March Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. The market consensus currently anticipates job growth of 128,000, a decline from February’s 151,000 (Figure 1). W
Author  TradingKey
Apr 02, Wed
On 4 April 2025, the United States will release its March Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. The market consensus currently anticipates job growth of 128,000, a decline from February’s 151,000 (Figure 1). W
placeholder
Japanese Yen spikes to multi-week high against USD after Trump’s tariffs announcementThe Japanese Yen (JPY) jumped to a three-week top against its American counterpart during the Asian session on Thursday after US President Donald Trump imposed sweeping trade tariffs.
Author  FXStreet
23 hours ago
The Japanese Yen (JPY) jumped to a three-week top against its American counterpart during the Asian session on Thursday after US President Donald Trump imposed sweeping trade tariffs.
placeholder
Bitcoin price reacts as Gold sets fresh record highs after Trump’s reciprocal tariffs announcementBitcoin price plunges towards $82,000 as Gold soars past $3,150 after US President Donald Trump imposed new tariffs on Israel and UK, triggering global markets turbulence.
Author  FXStreet
23 hours ago
Bitcoin price plunges towards $82,000 as Gold soars past $3,150 after US President Donald Trump imposed new tariffs on Israel and UK, triggering global markets turbulence.
placeholder
Bitcoin Price Forecast: Tariff volatility sweeps over $200 billion from crypto marketsBitcoin (BTC) price hovers around $83,000 at the time of writing on Thursday after it failed to close above a critical resistance level the previous day.
Author  FXStreet
16 hours ago
Bitcoin (BTC) price hovers around $83,000 at the time of writing on Thursday after it failed to close above a critical resistance level the previous day.
Related Instrument
goTop
quote