Mitrade Insights is dedicated to providing investors with rich, timely and most valuable financial information to help investors grasp the market situation and find timely trading opportunities.

2021

Best News & Analysis Provider

FxDailyInfo

2022

Best Forex Educational Resources Global

International Business Magazine

Insights

News

Indices

USD: Oversupply of FX drivers – ING

Source Fxstreet

The US GDP report for the second quarter came in stronger than expected yesterday, ING’s FX strategist Francesco Pesole notes.

DXY to trade on the soft side and re-test 104.0

“Growth was a solid 2.8% and core PCE slowed from 3.7% to 2.9%, above the 2.7% consensus. That implies that the June PCE deflator will be 0.28% MoM today, which seems unlikely based off the inputs from CPI and PPI. So we suspect it will also involve upward revisions to the previous couple of months. The consensus is for 0.2% MoM.”

“A stronger GDP/PCE would have sent shockwaves across the FX markets and boosted the dollar in other market conditions. But yesterday's reaction consisted only of a short-lived and modest dollar rally. We think there are two reasons for that. First, US macro is not currently the main FX driver, or at least there is an unusual abundance of drivers.”

“Second, markets have made a conviction call on Fed easing, and yesterday’s figures did not cast serious doubts on the disinflationary path. The Dollar Index (DXY) is benefitting from the low volatility of the Euro and remains an inaccurate benchmark of current dollar conditions. Today, a core PCE at 0.2% MoM could anyway help it trade again on the soft side and re-test 104.0.”

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Recommended Articles

Dollar holds above 100 near a 3-month high — three Fed speakers and a $69 billion auction land tonight The dollar index closed at 100.43 on Monday, its highest close since late July, after a weekly gain of about 1% — the best in more than three months — and is holding above the 100.00 handle in Asia. Three Fed officials speak tonight alongside a $69 billion two-year note auction, the first leg of $183 billion of Treasury supply this week.

Author Suzie

Sep 22, Tue

The dollar index closed at 100.43 on Monday, its highest close since late July, after a weekly gain of about 1% — the best in more than three months — and is holding above the 100.00 handle in Asia. Three Fed officials speak tonight alongside a $69 billion two-year note auction, the first leg of $183 billion of Treasury supply this week.

October hike odds climb toward 60% as Goldman and BofA both flip — what Warsh's "dose of accommodation" really changed Rate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.

Author Irene Q.

Sep 23, Wed

Rate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.

Memory chips surge, Nasdaq notches a second straight record close — why the Dow fell 185 points anyway Micron gained 5%, SanDisk 6.8%, Seagate 4% and Western Digital 3% as the memory complex led the Nasdaq Composite to a second consecutive record close of 27,244.28. But the Dow fell 185 points as JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Schwab slid more than 3% each — a split tape that says more about positioning than about the economy.

Author Irene Q.

Sep 23, Wed

Micron gained 5%, SanDisk 6.8%, Seagate 4% and Western Digital 3% as the memory complex led the Nasdaq Composite to a second consecutive record close of 27,244.28. But the Dow fell 185 points as JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Schwab slid more than 3% each — a split tape that says more about positioning than about the economy.

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD drifts toward $4.300 with bears gaining traction Gold (XAU/USD) retraces Tuesday’s gains on Wednesday and drifts lower, approaching the $4,300 area as the US Dollar Index (DXY) rallies further amid high US Treasury yields.

Author FXStreet

Sep 23, Wed

Gold (XAU/USD) retraces Tuesday’s gains on Wednesday and drifts lower, approaching the $4,300 area as the US Dollar Index (DXY) rallies further amid high US Treasury yields.

US input costs rose at the fastest pace in four years — the September flash PMI beat is an inflation story, not a growth story US September flash PMIs came in far above expectations, with the composite at 58.4, a five-year high. But the detail that moved markets was input cost inflation at its fastest since October 2022, driven by fuel, transport and supply shortages. Brent is back above $100 and the 10-year Treasury yield has hit its highest since 2007.

Author Suzie

23 hours ago

US September flash PMIs came in far above expectations, with the composite at 58.4, a five-year high. But the detail that moved markets was input cost inflation at its fastest since October 2022, driven by fuel, transport and supply shortages. Brent is back above $100 and the 10-year Treasury yield has hit its highest since 2007.

Related Instrument