US Dollar on the bench with focus on UK elections
- The US Dollar eases further after relatively dovish Fed Minutes.
- The focus will be across the Atlantic, with the UK heading to the voting booth and the ECB’s symposium wrapping up.
- The US Dollar index bounces off 105.00, though selling pressure builds.
The US Dollar (USD) is on track to ease for a third straight day in a row while US traders will not be making their way to the trading floor as US markets are closed due to Independence Day. However, there is much to digest after a rough day of US economic data on Wednesday, while several outside events occur on Thursday. The main event that will be building up towards the weekend will be the United Kingdom’s election outcome, where an end to the reign of the Tories party is forecasted after 14 years of being in power.
On the US economic front, an empty calendar ahead, though, as mentioned above, outside data and headlines will drive the Greenback. German Factory Orders already came in at the lowest end of expectations, shrinking -1.6% in May. In addition, the rather disappointing data from Wednesday will still weigh on the US Dollar, with limited upside potential expected for the Greenback.
Daily digest market movers: Outside pressure
- UK citizens are heading to the voting booth. Early results are not expected until late evening and overnight. However, exit polls and comments from key politicians could generate headling in due time. Keeping an eye on the Cable (GBP/USD) will be key for the remainder of the week.
- The New York Times proclaimed that US President Joe Biden is considering withdrawing from the Presidential race.
- The US Federal Reserve Minutes showed the same message as markets heard over the past few weeks: more data is needed to confirm inflation is coming down. However, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is divided on how long rates need to stay elevated.
- European equities are marginally in the green, along with Asia, where Japan is leading the surge. US futures are flat and are facing less trading volume than usual due to the public holiday.
- The CME Fedwatch Tool is broadly backing a rate cut in September despite recent comments from Fed officials. The odds now stand at 67.3% for a 25-basis-point cut. A rate pause stands at a 26.5% chance, while a 50-basis-point rate cut has a slim 6.2% possibility.
- The US 10-year benchmark rate trades at 4.36%, near its weekly low. Note that the US bond market is closed due to the public holiday.
US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Thin support
The US Dollar Index (DXY) eased quite substantially on Wednesday after a wave of softer US data made the DXY fell to 105.00. Luckily, Dollar bulls came in quickly to salvage the situation and push it back above the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 105.32. Though, selling pressure is building on that support with another test early Thursday. Pressure could build in the runup towards Friday, when the Nonfarm Payrolls could be the catalyst that pushes the DXY all the way back to 104.75, which is the next key support.
On the upside, 105.53 and 105.89 are the first nearby pivotal levels. Once a daily close above those levels, the red descending trend line in the chart around 106.23 and the April’s peak at 106.52 are the two main resistances ahead of a fresh nine-month high. That would be reached once 107.35 is broken to the upside.
On the downside, the 55-day SMA at 105.22 safeguard the 105.00 round figure. A touch lower, near 104.76 and 104.44, both the 100-day and the 200-day SMA form a double layer of protection to support any declines together with the green ascending trendline from last December.
US Dollar Index: Daily Chart
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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