Bitcoin Price Falters: Why Has The 5th Wave Been Elusive Below $100,000?

Bitcoin’s recent surge above $94,000 has brought a wave of bullish momentum across the crypto market. However, this rally has yet to gain real traction beyond $95,000. This elusive behavior is part of a wider trend that has seen the anticipated Bitcoin’s 5th wave breakout above $100,000 remain elusive.

Bitcoin’s 5th Wave Appears To Be Stretching

The weekly Bitcoin chart highlights a classic impulsive sequence following Elliott Wave Theory, but it is becoming increasingly clear that the 5th wave has not unfolded in a straight line. As shown in the chart below, Bitcoin entered into a 5th wave formation in the middle of 2024, right when it began its initial rally towards the $100,000 level. This 5th wave formation is the last of a series of Elliott waves that goes back as far as late 2022. 

However, the structure points toward an extended 5th wave, a phenomenon where the final upward leg stretches longer than typical, and is filled with its own sub-impulse waves. This has caused the BTC price to continue trading below $100,000.

Interestingly, Bitcoin is currently playing out its 3rd sub-impulse wave. If this extended wave plays out fully, it could line up with the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle with a peak above $170,000. According to a crypto analyst that goes by the pseudonymous name Charting Guy on social media platform X, this could lead to major altcoin rallies in its latter stages.

Multiple Price Targets Offer Clues About BTC’s Path Forward

Aside from the extended 5th wave scenario, the analyst laid out other projections for Bitcoin. The $95,000 price level has been met as a target for a relief rally with Bitcoin’s latest breakout. However, surpassing this level is going to be important in maintaining bullish momentum.

The next targets outlined by the analyst include a potential double top forming around $109,000 and a bullish Fibonacci extension move toward $128,000, corresponding to the 1.414 Fibonacci level. Above that, a continued rally could push BTC toward the 1.618 Fibonacci extension near $173,000, although this upper target is more of an optimistic long-term projection at the peak of the extended 5th wave.

Despite the impressive surge in price, momentum indicators are offering a more cautious backdrop. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly timeframe exhibits a pattern of lower highs, which may indicate a bearish divergence.

This divergence typically signals weakening internal strength within the uptrend, even though the price is making new highs. It does not invalidate the possibility of higher prices, but it increases the likelihood of corrective phases along the way, which is typical of the extended 5th wave.

At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $94,686. On-chain data shows an impending supply squeeze due to the ongoing wave of Bitcoin outflows from crypto exchanges.