Bitcoin Leverage-Driven Surge Continues: Can Spot Buyers Keep Up?

Bitcoin is now testing a crucial resistance level as bulls attempt to reclaim momentum and print a higher high on the daily chart. After months of sustained pressure, BTC appears to have found support, offering the potential for a decisive trend reversal. Since peaking in January, Bitcoin has been stuck in a persistent downtrend, with lower highs and weakening bullish conviction. Now, with price pressing against key resistance, all eyes are on whether bulls can deliver a breakout and change the narrative.

However, caution is warranted. According to fresh insights from CryptoQuant, the market is currently experiencing the largest 24-hour Open Interest increase seen in quite some time. While this surge reflects growing trader participation, it also signals a rise in speculative positions, particularly in the derivatives market. Historically, such rapid increases in Open Interest, especially when tied to aggressive long positions, can precede short-term corrections or failed rallies.

Whether Bitcoin can sustain its current strength or if this move will be met with sharp rejection remains to be seen; it depends on spot demand. What’s clear is that the next few days will be critical in determining whether BTC breaks free from its downtrend — or remains stuck in limbo.

Bitcoin Faces Resistance as Derivatives Pump Fuels Cautious Optimism

Amid ongoing global tensions and persistent market uncertainty, Bitcoin is holding steady and showing signs of resilience. Analysts are beginning to see potential for a rebound in the coming months, as price action shifts toward bullish speculation. Following a period of tight consolidation last week, BTC is now pressing against critical resistance, and this week may prove decisive in determining the asset’s next major move.

Bulls are gaining traction as selling pressure appears to be fading, allowing the market to start pricing in broader macroeconomic developments. However, not all indicators point to a clean breakout. According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, Bitcoin is currently experiencing the largest 24-hour Open Interest (OI) increase in quite some time. Historically, such spikes in OI — driven largely by derivatives activity — have been warning signals for short-lived rallies.

The most notable OI increases during the observed period were around 15–16%, recorded during the strong bullish momentum in November and December 2024. At that time, aggressive derivatives trading was backed by strength in the spot market. Today, the story is different. While OI is rising sharply, price has only moved 4.2% — compared to 10% and 7% surges in similar past setups.

This divergence suggests that although momentum is building, selling pressure remains substantial. Bulls will need to reclaim the $90K level and sustain a breakout above key resistance to confirm a true reversal. Until then, Bitcoin’s path remains cautious — with high leverage activity hinting at volatility ahead.

BTC Tests Key Breakout Zone At $88K

Bitcoin is currently trading around $88,000 after setting a fresh 4-hour high near $88,870, marking a strong continuation from last week’s upward momentum. Bulls are gaining ground as BTC climbs toward a key resistance zone, but the real test lies ahead. To confirm a breakout and initiate a sustained recovery rally, Bitcoin must close decisively above the $90,000 level.

So far, the price action reflects growing buyer interest, but holding above $88,000 is critical to maintaining short-term strength. This level now serves as immediate demand and must be defended to avoid a reversal. A rejection from this zone could lead to a retest of the $85,000 support area, potentially forming a higher low if bullish structure holds.

Traders are closely watching for a clean breakout above $90K, which would likely trigger further upside and a shift in sentiment. However, any weakness or failure to hold current gains may invite profit-taking or new short positions. With global macro uncertainty and derivative-driven activity increasing, BTC remains in a pivotal zone where momentum could accelerate — in either direction — in the coming days.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView