Official Trump (TRUMP) crashes ahead of its first token unlock

Official Trump (TRUMP) anticipates the effect of its first unlock. The market will have to absorb the first unlocked tokens coming on April 17.

Official Trump (TRUMP) expects its first unlock after April 17. The token, which mixes its meme potential with community-building, may lose value even faster after the unlocks. 

Ahead of the unlocks, TRUMP fell to a lower range, from $8.47 down to $7.99. The token has erased most of the holders’ value, even as only 20% of the supply is unlocked. The market will potentially see an inflow of 40M unlocked tokens, currently valued at $330M. The tokens belong to one of the biggest creator wallets, currently holding 39% of the supply. 

TRUMP will also be the biggest token unlock for this week, becoming a test for the market, as most traders have lost interest in altcoins. Meme tokens retain some of their activity, mostly driven by FARTCOIN. The TRUMP token may get a boost from the growth in the Made in USA narrative, as well as the general weekly recovery of meme tokens, based on Alphanomics data. 

Most of the tokens held now are part of the public distribution, where the earliest buyers paid premium prices for TRUMP. Despite the initial enthusiasm and high liquidity, TRUMP is on track to lose 90% of its value. 

The current unlocks will continue for the next two years, gradually inflating the supply from 200M up to 1B tokens in circulation. The unlocks are seen as another source of price pressure, but may also trigger unpredictable short-term moves. Some expect the unlocks to bring a pump caused by market markets, so the team can cash out faster and at a higher price range. 

Traders are reluctant to short TRUMP

Ahead of the unlocks, TRUMP trades on a mix of decentralized liquidity pools and a Binance centralized pair. The token’s trading volumes are increasing again, going over $500M in the past few days. 

Ahead of the unlock, the TRUMP market saw an outflow of derivative traders, aiming to avoid the potential volatility. The open interest fell to 200.03M, down from over $240M over the weekend. 

Despite the expectations of a price drop, short positions make up around 34% of open interest. The long/short ratio increased slightly, showing risk-averse behavior. TRUMP has no directional guarantee, as the unlocked tokens will be granted to the team at virtually no cost. It remains uncertain if the team will try to realize profits even at this lower price range. 

Whales still sell TRUMP ahead of the unlock

Social media accounts hold some expectations that the TRUMP unlock may be bullish. However, top traders are divesting more of their holdings. The top TRUMP trader whale has realized more than $29M in profits. The same whale continued to place sell orders for TRUMP as of April 14. 

TRUMP is a relatively obscure token, despite the active narrative around the US President. The asset is mostly swapped actively by meme token whales, some of which switch between memes for the best chances of short-term profits. 

TRUMP sees high-velocity activity between wallets, including potential market-makers. One of the top 10 whales is actively transacting with Binance’s wallets, potentially preparing for more volatile price action. 

Bubblemaps data shows the formation of several wallet clusters with high-velocity token transfers. The token is not present in Kamino lending vaults to be used as collateral, and trades outside of the currently trending Solana meme tokens.

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