New fear unlocked: Republicans worry Trump economic war will wipe them out

Republican lawmakers are worried that President Donald Trump’s pause-and-play tariff strategy could backfire politically and economically, potentially jeopardizing the GOP’s prospects in the 2026 midterm elections. 

Owing to how tariffs hit both adversaries and allies, party leaders warn the President that inflation, higher borrowing costs, suppressed consumer expenditure, and market instability could undo hard-won electoral gains.

Last week, Trump announced that Chinese import tariffs would clock 145%, prompting Beijing to retaliate with a 125% tariff on American goods. Though the POTUS temporarily paused trade levies for several other countries for 90 days, claiming they are now on the negotiation table, Republicans are concerned about the leading party’s reputation back home.

According to data reported by Yahoo Finance, the 30-year Treasury yield, closely linked to mortgage rates, saw its biggest one-week jump since 1982, rising to 4.88%. The 10-year yield climbed to 4.59%, increasing borrowing costs for consumers and businesses.

GOP leaders support Trump, but subtly question his tariffs

Conservative Senator Thom Tillis, one to watch in the upcoming midterm cycle, referenced the former President Ronald Reagan era in 1982 when Republicans lost 26 seats in the House, likely caused by economic concerns and rising interest rates.

“All the indicators would be ‘wrong track’ if we’re still having the same tariff discussions by February,” Tillis remarked.

Tillis is asking the Trump administration to finalize favorable trade deals within the next 10 months. But without concrete results, he said, the GOP would face “political headwinds” similar to past electoral wipeouts following tax hikes or trade disruptions.

Another GOP leader, Senator Rand Paul, invoked the 1932 election when the Republican authors of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, Senators Reed Smoot and Willis Hawley, lost their seats after their protectionist policies shared the biggest part of the blame for deepening the Great Depression.

“We went into the wilderness for a long, long time,” Paul denoted about the economic and political damage inflicted by the 1930 tariffs. “The economics of tariffs are bad; the politics, if anything, are worse.”

Paul fears history is at risk of repeating itself. He tells his colleagues that Trump’s trade agenda could lead the country into a recession and drag the Republican Party down with it.

Moreover, according to a report released Friday by the Tax Foundation, a nonpartisan fiscal policy group, President Trump’s latest round of tariffs would boost federal revenue as a percentage of GDP by 0.56%, the largest such increase since President Bill Clinton’s 1993 tax hike, which preceded the Democrats’ major losses in the 1994 midterms.

Spotlight on the farm states

In rural America side, Senators like Mike Rounds, who are also seeking reelection next year, are losing sleep over farmer’s agony. 

“It’s not good for my farmers,” Rounds said, discussing the economic volatility across stock, commodity, and bond markets. “We’ve got a lot of people that rely on being able to sell our commodities worldwide.”

In 2022, China imported $1.4 billion in goods from South Dakota, roughly 28% of the state’s total exports. The retaliatory tariffs from Beijing could hit that trade relationship hard, directly affecting the livelihoods of many South Dakotans.

Texas Right-wing policymaker Senator Ted Cruz also does not approve of the POTUS impositions on trade partners. 

“Tariffs are a tax on consumers, and I’m not a fan of jacking up taxes on American consumers,” he said in a Monday Fox Business interview.

Senator Susan Collins opposed the 25% tariff Trump placed on Canadian imports because it could negatively impact Maine’s economy and industries like lobster fishing.

“I never thought that putting tariffs on friendly countries that are our allies is the way to go,” she reckoned. Collins recalled discussions with Trump’s official trade adviser Peter Navarro about how earlier tariffs had damaged Maine’s seafood exports. 

“The Canadian tariffs make no sense. This is the position I’ve had for a very long time.”

~ said Senator Susan Collins.

Approval ratings dip, Democrats eyes light up 

According to a recent Economist/YouGov poll, there’s been a 5-point drop in Trump’s approval rating post-tariff announcements. The main factor behind the “change of heart” appears to be economic concerns.

An October Gallup poll showed President Trump was well ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris by 9 points on economic stewardship. But, after weeks of a stock market bloodbath and his stubborn will to strong-arm trading partners to listen to him, the president’s grip is supposedly slipping.

A senior Senate Republican aide, speaking anonymously, said Trump could be endangering his strongest electoral asset. “The economy was his best issue in 2024. That could now be slipping away.”

Democratic Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said the shifting mood is already being felt in battleground states while accusing Trump of steering the nation toward a recession.

“We’re seeing it in just about every state, and the numbers continue to get worse for him. People have less and less faith in Donald Trump’s handling of this country’s economic policies,” Schumer said at a recent press conference.

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