China’s exports rise as companies rush to ship goods amid tariff fears

China’s exports were up 12.4% in March from a year earlier. During the same period, imports declined 4.3% to $211.3 billion, leaving a trade surplus of $102.6 billion.

Businesses rushed to ship goods before higher U.S. tariffs took effect. The jump in exports reflects efforts by Chinese companies to counter a series of tariff hikes ordered by U.S. President Donald Trump.

Trump initially imposed a 10% increase in tariffs on imports from China after taking office. He later raised that figure to 20% and has now pushed it to 145% on most Chinese exports bound for the U.S. That situation has driven Chinese exporters to accelerate shipments to American buyers, hoping to evade the latest rises in import duties.

China’s trade balance has been in the spotlight for some time. In 2024, the country’s trade surplus soared to a record $992.2 billion, with exports up 5.4%.

Customs Administration data shows China’s trade surplus with the United States stood at $27.6 billion in March, boosted by a 4.5% rise in exports to that market. Over the first quarter, the surplus reached $76.6 billion, despite only a 2.3% increase in exports for the first two months of the year.

“Export growth accelerated in March, as manufacturers rushed to ship goods to the U.S. ahead of ‘Liberation Day,’” said Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of China economics at Capital Economics, in a note to clients.

“But shipments are set to drop back over the coming months and quarters,” he added. “We think it could be years before Chinese exports regain current levels.”

Observers also point to domestic factors undermining import growth, highlighted by the 4.3% drop in overall imports. While Chinese imports of crude oil rose in March, imports of soybeans, coal, iron ore, and unwrought copper declined. Imports from the United States may be feeling the effects of the tariff dispute, with total soybean imports diving 36.8% year-on-year in March.

China wants to fight “to the end”

Beijing has vowed to keep fighting U.S. tariffs “to the end.” It wants to protect the economy from “external shocks.” On Friday, President Xi Jinping reportedly told Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez in Beijing that China and the European Union should work together to oppose “unilateral acts of bullying,” according to the Xinhua news agency.

The CSI300 Index modestly increased by 0.3% on Monday. Analysts say mixed signals from President Trump about possible exemptions on selected consumer electronics contributed to the slight uptick.

Economists have revised their outlook for China’s full-year growth. Goldman Sachs reduced its 2025 GDP forecast to 4% from 4.5%. On the other hand, Citi reduced its projection from 4.7% to 4.2%. These revised numbers fall short of the government’s official target of “around 5%.”

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