Pundit Gives Dogecoin Price 30-40% Chance Of Crash To $0.165 As RSI Enters Oversold Levels

A recent Dogecoin analysis on TradingView has highlighted a potential scenario where DOGE could dip below the $0.165 mark before rebounding. The analyst, reviewing the 4-hour candlestick chart, pointed to extremely oversold RSI levels as a basis for this outlook. Although a bounce appears to be the more probable outcome, there is still a 30 to 40% chance of a short-term drop into deeper support territory.

Dogecoin RSI Dips Below 10 On 4-Hour Chart To Possibly Extend Decline

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a technical analysis indicator used to measure an asset’s momentum. When above 70, the asset is considered overbought, meaning it might be due for a price correction or pullback. On the other hand, readings below 30 are considered oversold, meaning that the asset might be undervalued and could bounce upward soon.

In the case of Dogecoin, the meme coin has been under intense selling pressure since the beginning of March. This selling pressure has seen it lose most of its price gains in late 2024 and break below notable support pressure. This, in turn, has seen the RSI fall towards the oversold levels across multiple timeframes.

According to the technical overview, the Relative Strength Index on the 1-hour timeframe is between 25 and 27, signaling strong oversold conditions. On the 4-hour chart, the RSI has dropped even lower, falling beneath 10, which typically indicates an asset is due for a corrective bounce. The daily RSI is currently hovering around 32 to 33, still above the oversold zone but trending downward. These readings suggest that while bearish pressure is present, the setup of a bounce from oversold levels increasingly favors a rebound as buyers look to re-enter near support.

Analyst Sees Bounce Toward $0.172–$0.175 As More Probable Outcome

According to the analyst, the break of the RSI below the oversold levels points to a decline toward the $0.1580 and $0.1590 support region. Despite the possibility of a decline toward the $0.1580 to $0.1590 support region, the analyst noted a higher probability (around 60 to 70%) of a near-term bounce after hitting this support region, possibly targeting the $0.172 to $0.175 range. 

The projection hinges on Dogecoin’s possible reaction to such a deeply oversold RSI level. The analyst emphasized that this is an assumption rather than financial advice, but the technical context supports the likelihood of a relief rally if the support holds.

At the time of writing, Dogecoin is trading at $0.1649, down by 3.6% in the past 24 hours. With both downside and upside scenarios laid out, short-term Dogecoin price action now depends on how the market reacts at the current $0.165 level. A move toward $0.172 or higher could unfold quickly if buyers step in right now. However, if selling continues, Dogecoin might continue its decline throughout the week before attempting a recovery.