US As A Bitcoin Whale? Analyst Puts 2025 Buying Odds At Just 30%

A debate is brewing over the likelihood of the United States government buying more Bitcoin in the coming year. This development follows US President Donald Trump’s earlier executive order aimed at establishing a national Bitcoin reserve. However, opinions on the probability of this happening in 2025 are sharply divided among financial analysts.

Bloomberg Analyst Cites Political Hurdles

Based on a new analysis by a Bloomberg expert, there is a meager 30% chance the US government will augment its Bitcoin portfolio in 2025. The analyst cited Washington’s current political environment as being a major deterrent.

With the Republicans controlling a slim majority of seats in Congress, any resolution to buy Bitcoin is likely to be opposed resolutely by the Democratic party.

Bloomberg legal analyst says 30% chance Federal Government buys Bitcoin this year.

Says Trump won’t put political capital into passing legislation, because he could make it happen unilaterally if he wanted do via the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF). pic.twitter.com/NnVhEfCR8m

— matthew sigel, recovering CFA (@matthew_sigel) March 21, 2025

The analyst also posited that if Trump was indeed serious about buying Bitcoin for the country’s reserve, he could already have made use of current government channels, including the Exchange Stabilization Fund, to purchase such assets. This note puts in doubt whether a large-scale Bitcoin buyout is possible and necessary soon.

VanEck Provides A More Optimistic Projection

In contrast to the Bloomberg analyst’s conservative assessment, Matt Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, presents a considerably more optimistic scenario.

Sigel believes the possibilities of the US government purchasing Bitcoin in 2025 are significantly higher, putting it between 50% and 60%.

(The specific name of the Bloomberg analyst is not mentioned in the available search results. However, the information was shared by Sigel, who referenced a note from a Bloomberg legal analyst).

Meanwhile, the brighter outlook suggests that the benefits of keeping BTC in a national reserve outweigh the political challenges mentioned by the Bloomberg analyst. Sigel believes that the government could realize the strategic importance of including cryptocurrencies in its financial strategy.

Speculations about the US government purchasing Bitcoin began after Trump issued an executive order, which hinted at the creation of a national crypto reserve. The specifics and timing are still not clear, causing varied opinions among experts. If the US holds a large amount of Bitcoin, it could greatly influence both the crypto world and the wider financial market.

Featured image from Gemini Imagen, chart from TradingView