Bitcoin UTXO P/L Ratio Hits 50.2 – A 30-Point Drop Could Signal the End Of This Correction

Bitcoin is at a pivotal moment, with bulls struggling to reclaim prices above $85K and bears failing to push BTC below $80K. This indecision in the market has led to growing bearish sentiment as many investors speculate whether the bull cycle is coming to an end.

Macroeconomic uncertainty and erratic decisions from U.S. President Trump continue to fuel market volatility, creating aggressive price swings across crypto and U.S. stock markets. Investors are now looking for key technical signals to determine Bitcoin’s next move.

According to CryptoQuant’s latest insights, the Bitcoin UTXO Block P/L Count Ratio Model is currently at 50.2. This metric measures how many recent BTC transactions are occurring at a profit versus a loss, providing insights into market sentiment and potential reversals.

With BTC trapped in a tight range, the market is at a make-or-break moment. If bulls reclaim momentum and push Bitcoin above $85K-$90K, a strong recovery rally could follow. However, if BTC drops below $80K, it could signal further downside ahead, confirming the worst fears of bearish investors.

Bitcoin Faces Continued Correction

Bitcoin’s downtrend deepened after losing the $100K level, with a confirmed bearish trend once BTC dropped below $90K. Since reaching its all-time high of $109K in January, Bitcoin has plunged over 29%, and the market shows no clear signs of recovery yet.

The ongoing trade war tensions between the U.S. and major global economies, including Europe, China, and Canada, have added to investor uncertainty. Macroeconomic instability, tight monetary policies, and rising inflation concerns have made risk assets, including crypto and stocks, more volatile.

Amid this backdrop, top analyst Axel Adler shared insights on X, highlighting that the Bitcoin UTXO Block P/L Count Ratio Model is currently at 50.2. This metric assesses how many recent Bitcoin transactions are occurring at a profit versus a loss, offering key insights into market sentiment and potential reversals.

Adler noted that if this metric drops just 30 points, it would reach historical levels where previous cycle corrections ended. This includes the July 2021 correction following China’s mining ban, which marked the end of a major downtrend before BTC recovered sharply.

With Bitcoin hovering between $80K and $85K, investors are watching for signs of capitulation or accumulation, which could determine the next major move in the market.

BTC Price Struggles Between $85K and $82K

Bitcoin is trading between $85K and $82K, with no clear direction for the coming days. The price action remains uncertain, as bulls struggle to regain momentum, while bears fail to push BTC below $80K.

A key concern for traders is that BTC is trading below the 200-day moving average (MA) at $84,200, a critical level that often dictates market trends. If Bitcoin fails to reclaim this level, the next downside target could be below $80K, potentially testing major demand zones around $78K-$75K.

However, bulls still have a chance to step in and prevent further downside. If BTC reclaims the $85K-$86K range, this could trigger a recovery rally, bringing $90K back into play. A decisive break above $90K would signal renewed strength and a potential trend reversal, shifting sentiment back toward bullish territory.

For now, the market remains in a consolidation phase, with traders watching for a breakout in either direction. A failure to reclaim $85K could reinforce bearish pressure, while breaking above key resistance levels could pave the way for a stronger Bitcoin recovery.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView