S&P 500 futures tumble after the Dow’s worst week in 2 years as Bitcoin stays under $85k

S&P 500 futures dropped by 0.4% early Monday as markets continued last week’s brutal decline. Dow Jones futures slid 184 points, while Nasdaq 100 futures also lost around 0.4%, according to data from CNBC at press time.

Investors are already expecting another rough trading session later when the market opens after the Dow recorded its worst one-week drop since 2023, plunging 4.4%.

The Nasdaq Composite is deep in correction territory, while the Russell 2000 is teetering on a bear market, down nearly 20% from its all-time high. The S&P 500 briefly fell into correction territory last week before making a weak attempt to recover, which, of course, failed.

S&P 500 restless as investors wait for Fed decision and economic data

All eyes are on the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting this week, where interest rates are expected to remain unchanged. But the real focus will be Jerome Powell’s post-meeting comments. Powell has repeatedly stated that the Fed is “in no hurry” to cut rates, but with markets spiraling, traders will be listening for any sign of a shift.

There are growing concerns that the U.S. economy is heading toward a recession. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent addressed those concerns Sunday, saying there are “no guarantees” the country will avoid an economic downturn. He also emphasized that the Trump administration is working to prevent a financial crisis.

Investors are also watching Monday’s U.S. retail sales data, a key indicator of consumer health. Economists expect a 0.6% increase in February, but after last week’s bloodbath, traders need more than decent numbers to feel confident.

Corporate leaders aren’t optimistic. Adam Parker, CEO of Trivariate Research, said companies that spoke at major March conferences signaled slowing growth. “I think this is more than a growth scare already. This is actually like a growth slowdown,” Parker said. He warned that April earnings reports might start showing negative guidance, which could drag markets down even further.

Bitcoin stays under $85k as traders weigh next move

Bitcoin is still stuck below $85,000, unable to break higher despite market turmoil. The cryptocurrency is down 14% in 2025 and currently sits 26% below its all-time high from January. The decline has been fueled by Trump’s aggressive tariff policies, which have put pressure on risk assets.

For the past week, Bitcoin has hovered around $80,000, refusing to move much in either direction. Crypto investors are now debating whether this is a good time to buy or if more pain is ahead. Analysts are watching two key factors: Bitcoin’s positive correlation with global money supply (M2) and its negative correlation with the U.S. dollar index (DXY).

Christopher Harvey, an equity analyst at Wells Fargo, noted that Bitcoin typically lags the inverted DXY by about 10 weeks. “The relationship suggests the current drawdown is a reaction to the strong dollar environment in [the fourth quarter], and that the weak dollar environment we have seen since the DXY peaked on January 13 (eight weeks ago) may be more constructive for the asset going forward,” Harvey wrote in a note Wednesday.

Ed Engel, an analyst at Compass Point, also pointed out Bitcoin’s historical price movements. “Global M2 has historically led BTC prices by three months,” he explained in a note. He added that liquidity peaked in late September before contracting in Q4, but since early 2025, global M2 has rebounded alongside a weaker dollar. If Bitcoin follows the pattern, Engel believes it could remain weak through March before rallying in Q2.

Global markets react as crypto struggles to recover

While Wall Street is panicking, Asian markets had a mixed reaction on Monday. China’s CSI 300 dropped 0.24%, closing at 3,996.79, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index climbed 0.77% in its final hour.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.93%, finishing at 37,396.52, while the Topix index gained 1.19% to close at 2,748.12. Japan’s bond market saw major movement as 40-year JGB yields hit a record 3.007%, and 30-year JGB yields climbed to a 19-year high of 2.635%.

South Korea’s Kospi index surged 1.73%, closing at 2,610.69, while the small-cap Kosdaq added 1.26% to 743.51. India’s Nifty 50 inched up 0.35%, and the BSE Sensex rose 0.26%. Meanwhile, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 finished 0.83% higher, closing at 7,854.10.

Back in the U.S., crypto investors remain frustrated. Despite Trump’s promises to make the regulatory environment more favorable for crypto, the industry still doesn’t have clear rules. The uncertainty isn’t helping Bitcoin’s price action.

Wolfe Research analysts aren’t convinced that Bitcoin is ready for a big move upward. “We are seeing notable breakdowns across the board through key support levels,” they wrote in a note Wednesday. “This is not the action of a group readying to rally. Instead, we fear it speaks towards a shift into a period of sustained weakness.”

The $90,000 price level remains critical, but analysts aren’t betting on a quick recovery. “A move above the $91,000 to $92,000 range would allow for a sigh of relief in the near term,” Wolfe Research wrote. But they don’t think it will last. “Our sense is that it would likely get sold however. We simply don’t see an environment capable of supporting a meaningful turnaround in crypto.”

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