Is The Bitcoin Cycle Peak In? Historical Halving Data Suggests Upside Potential Into Late 2025

Bitcoin is now down over 29% from its all-time high (ATH) in January, and speculation about a coming bear market is growing among investors. After weeks of heavy selling pressure, Bitcoin has entered a consolidation phase, trading between $80K and $85K, with no clear breakout direction yet.

Bulls now face a critical test, as they must push BTC above key resistance levels to prevent bears from driving prices lower. If BTC fails to reclaim $85K-$90K, it could lead to another round of selling pressure, sending the price toward lower demand zones. The uncertainty in global markets, combined with macroeconomic headwinds such as inflation concerns, rising interest rates, and trade war fears, has kept investor sentiment fragile.

Despite this short-term uncertainty, insights from IntoTheBlock highlight an important historical trend—when analyzing previous Bitcoin halvings, peaks typically occur 12–18 months post-halving, which would point to mid-to-late 2025 as the likely timeframe for this cycle’s top.

The big question remains: Is this cycle different? With institutional adoption rising, government policies shifting, and market volatility increasing, analysts are watching closely to determine whether Bitcoin will follow its historical pattern or if external factors will reshape this cycle. The next few months will be crucial in deciding Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory.

Historical Halving Trends Suggest More Growth Ahead

Bitcoin has been under heavy selling pressure, mirroring the broader struggles of both the crypto market and the US stock market. Macroeconomic uncertainty, trade war fears, and tightening financial conditions have all contributed to weakened investor sentiment, leading to widespread volatility across risk assets.

Since the start of the month, Bitcoin has dropped nearly 20%, and the bearish trend appears to be holding. However, despite the short-term weakness, market fundamentals remain strong. Institutional adoption continues to grow, and US President Donald Trump’s plans to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve could serve as a major catalyst for future price movements.

Insights from IntoTheBlock on X highlight that when looking at historical Bitcoin halving cycles, peaks tend to occur 12–18 months after a halving event. This pattern suggests that the current cycle’s top could emerge around mid-to-late 2025.

While institutional flows and regulatory developments could introduce new variables into this cycle, IntoTheBlock analysts believe there is still time left before Bitcoin reaches its true peak. If historical trends hold, this correction may be a necessary phase before another major rally unfolds.

Bitcoin Struggles Below $85K As Bulls Face Critical Resistance

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at $84,200, struggling to regain momentum after days of selling pressure that have kept the price below the $85K mark. Bulls must reclaim the $90K-$91K level to confirm a potential recovery, as this range coincides with the 4-hour 200 moving average (MA) and exponential moving average (EMA)—key technical levels that often signal trend shifts.

If BTC can break through this resistance, it could trigger a strong upward move, potentially setting the stage for another push toward all-time highs. However, failure to hold above $85K and reclaim the moving averages could lead to further downside pressure, sending Bitcoin below the $80K mark.

With market sentiment still fragile, bulls face a critical test in the coming days. If BTC remains trapped below resistance, selling pressure could intensify, forcing the market into lower demand zones. On the other hand, a decisive breakout above $90K could restore bullish momentum, signaling a potential end to the recent correction phase. The next trading sessions will be crucial in determining Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView