Bitcoin’s Price at a Crossroads—Will It Break $86K or Drop to $64K Support?

Bitcoin’s price appears to be still struggling below key levels. So far, the asset still trades below $82,000 marking a slight uptick of 0.3% in the past day and a roughly 24.3% decrease away from its all-time high (ATH) above $109,000 registered in January.

Amid this price performance, key price levels, particularly those that impact short-term holders (STHs)—investors who have held Bitcoin for less than six months have emerged.

Short-Term Holder Realized Price: A Key Market Indicator

CryptoQuant analyst Yonsei Dent has identified a critical resistance zone between $86K and $90K, where many STHs remain in a loss position. The ability of Bitcoin to break through these levels will determine whether it can regain momentum or continue its downward trend.

Yonsei Dent emphasizes the importance of Realized Price, which represents the average acquisition cost of Bitcoin holders. This metric helps identify support and resistance zones by showing at what price level investors are likely to break even or sell at a loss.

Currently, Bitcoin is struggling to reclaim the $83,000 resistance, as the weighted average Realized Price for 1W–6M STHs stands at $91.800. This means that many recent buyers are still holding at a loss, creating selling pressure as they attempt to exit at break-even levels.

Additionally, the 3–6M STH Realized Price sits at $86.100, making it a major resistance zone. Since this group holds the largest share of Realized Cap among short-term holders, their trading activity could significantly impact Bitcoin’s price movements.

What This Means for Bitcoin’s Price Action

As Bitcoin trades in the $86,000 to $90,000 range, short-term holders selling at break-even could lead to increased market volatility. If Bitcoin is unable to break past this resistance, it could face renewed downward pressure.

On the downside, Bitcoin’s 6–12M Long-Term Holder (LTH) Realized Price sits at $63.700, with $64,000 being a strong historical support level. Yonsei Dent notes that if buying demand is strong enough to absorb selling pressure, Bitcoin may break out of this range and establish a more bullish trend.

However, if selling from short-term holders intensifies, Bitcoin could retest lower support levels before making any significant recovery. The analyst noted:

As Bitcoin navigates the $86K → $90K range, STHs looking to exit at break-even may increase market turbulence. The key question is whether buying demand will be strong enough to absorb this pressure. Let’s see how the market responds.

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView