Connex (CONX) leads $458 million token unlocks this week

The cryptocurrency market faces supply pressure in the coming week as more than $458 million worth of tokens are scheduled to be unlocked.

According to data from Tokenomist, Connex (CONX) leads the upcoming unlocks with a $74.82 million release, which represents 376.30% of its current circulating supply. As per the data, six major projects are each releasing more than $10 million worth of tokens between March 10-17.

Details of the $458 million token unlock

The upcoming token unlocks will introduce substantial new supply across multiple projects. As per the data, cliff-style unlocks account for approximately $230 million of the total. Connex (CONX) leads with 4.33 million tokens valued at $74.82 million.

Aptos (APT) follows with 11.31 million tokens worth $64.24 million. However, this represents a more modest 1.92% of its circulating supply. ZKJ will release 18.06 million tokens valued at $37.01 million, accounting for 29.90% of its supply. Also, Arbitrum (ARB) has scheduled a release of 92.65 million tokens worth $32.72 million, adding 2.10% to its circulating tokens.

Rounding out the major cliff unlocks, SEI will release 55.56 million tokens valued at $11.23 million (1.19% of supply). Following suit, Strike (STRK) plans to unlock 64 million tokens worth $9.99 million, which is 2.33% of its current circulation.

Linear unlocks will add another $228 million to the market through more gradual releases. Solana (SOL) leads this category with 465,770 tokens valued at $58.20 million. However, this is just 0.09% of SOL’s large circulating supply. Worldcoin (WLD) will release 37.23 million tokens worth $30.31 million (3.47% of supply), while TIA will unlock 6.99 million tokens valued at $21.51 million (1.30% of supply).

Other notable linear unlocks include Dogecoin (DOGE), with 96.52 million tokens worth $16.57 million, OM, with 2.65 million tokens valued at $16.04 million, and Avalanche (AVAX), with 700,000 tokens worth $12.79 million. The remaining unlocks spread across JTO, NEAR, DOT, IP, FIL, and a second SEI release collectively valued at approximately $60 million.

Market impact of the token unlock

Token unlocks typically create selling pressure as newly released tokens become available for trading. However, the actual impact varies based on market conditions and holder behavior. The most notable concern centers on Connex (CONX), where the 376.30% increase in circulating supply could substantially affect its market situation.

Projects with large percentage increases relative to current supply face the highest risk of price volatility. After CONX, ZKJ’s 29.90% supply increase presents the next largest proportional unlock.

In contrast, tokens like Solana (SOL) and Dogecoin (DOGE) are releasing relatively small percentages of their total supply (0.09% and 0.07%, respectively). These unlocks may limit price impact despite the dollar values involved.

Historical patterns suggest that prices often decline in anticipation of major unlocks rather than immediately after the event itself. Several tokens included in the unlock schedule have already experienced price declines over the past week. For example, Magic Square (SQR) has dropped 11.87% in the past 24 hours, while Ordibank (ORBK) has fallen 15.99% during the same period.

Risks and considerations for investors

Several factors should be considered by investors when determining the potential impact of upcoming token unlocks. The unlock-to-market cap ratio offers a good indication of probable price effects.

Projects with small market capitalizations facing large unlocks would, therefore, be under the highest risk of price volatility. An example would be Gods Unchained (GODS), which has a market cap of $33 million and 60.71% unlock progress. In this situation, Gods Unchained would be a candidate for a price effect from the potential increase in supply.

Unlocks are sometimes scheduled to coincide with project milestones or market events to avoid any negative impacts. In some cases, project announcements of product launches, partnerships, or other beneficial news are aligned with unlocks. Investors should look at the project’s announcements and roadmap for potential mitigating factors that may alleviate some selling pressure.

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