How Putin is playing his on-the-mend US relations with Trump

The Kremlin is keeping things measured. Putin is not rushing into a full embrace of Washington just because Trump is back in office. Moscow sees the reset in ties as positive, but officials are making it clear: the damage done under the last administration was extensive, and fixing it won’t happen overnight.

Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin’s Press Secretary, said Monday that while the restoration process has begun, it is only the first step in a long road. “The previous Washington administration messed things up badly. There’s a lot of work to be done,” Peskov told CNBC. On Tuesday, he reiterated that trust must be rebuilt step by step. “Much damage was done in the past four years and much was destroyed. It’s impossible to rebuild it all in an instant,” he told state-run Tass news agency.

Russia and the US reopen Ukraine negotiations, leaving Europe out

The biggest shift came when Trump’s administration sat down with Russia for the first high-level talks in years, looking to establish the foundation for Ukraine peace negotiations. The meeting sent shockwaves through Kyiv and European capitals, where officials felt blindsided. They had no say in the discussions, yet the US and Russia moved ahead anyway.

Moscow, however, seemed pleased. Putin rated the talks highly and said that while Trump’s Ukraine strategy doesn’t necessarily benefit Russia, it at least acknowledges the need for a deal. “What does [Trump] want to do? It seems to me that he wants to improve the situation, the political situation in Ukraine, consolidate society, and create conditions for the survival of the Ukrainian state,” Putin told state media correspondent Pavel Zarubin on Monday.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov later confirmed that a second round of US-Russia talks would happen before the week’s end, possibly in Saudi Arabia. Lavrov made it clear: Russia won’t accept any peace deal that doesn’t work in its favor. “We are ready to negotiate with Ukraine, Europe, and any representatives who would like to help achieve peace in good faith, but we will stop fighting only when these negotiations produce a firm and sustainable result that suits the Russian Federation,” he said.

At the UN, Washington shifts, Europe panics

Washington’s stance on Ukraine shifted further when the UN Security Council passed a US-drafted resolution on the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion. Unlike past resolutions, this one took a neutral tone, calling for “a swift end to the conflict” instead of outright condemning Russia. Moscow backed the resolution, as did China.

Europe was furious. Five European states—Denmark, France, Greece, Slovenia, and the UK—tried to amend the text to include a direct condemnation of Russia and support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity, but their proposals were shot down. With their changes rejected, the European nations abstained from voting, allowing the US resolution to pass unchallenged.

Earlier, the US had also refused to support a separate Ukraine-backed resolution at the UN General Assembly, which demanded Russia’s full and unconditional withdrawal from Ukrainian territory. The US abstained on that vote, too.

After the US-backed resolution passed, Russia’s UN Ambassador Vasily Nebenzya praised the shift in Washington’s stance. “The text adopted now is not ideal, but it is, in essence, the first attempt to adopt a constructive and future-oriented product of the Council, which speaks of the path to peace and does not fan the flames of conflict,” he said Monday.

This marks the first time in three years that Washington and Moscow have aligned at the UN on Ukraine. The move exposes deepening fractures within the West, with the US appearing more open to compromise, while Europe remains firmly against making any concessions to Moscow.

Economic fallout and geopolitical winners

Moscow has repeatedly downplayed the impact of Western sanctions, insisting that its economy has adapted by strengthening trade ties with China, India, and the Middle East. But a peace deal with Ukraine would be a financial jackpot for Russia. An easing of US restrictions and access to Western markets would boost Russian exports, particularly in oil and natural gas.

“The decision by the US and Russia to ‘lay the groundwork’ to end the war in Ukraine marks a potentially significant turning point after three years of conflict,” said Liam Peach, a senior emerging markets economist at Capital Economics. He noted that higher Russian gas exports could mean lower global energy prices, but any economic relief for Europe outside of Russia and Ukraine would be limited.

Meanwhile, David Roche, strategist at Quantum Strategy, sees this shift as a major win for autocratic leaders like Putin and China’s Xi Jinping. “The winners are Putin and Xi. They have proven how weak and decadent democracy is,” Roche said in an emailed statement. He warned that Trump’s retreat into isolationism creates an opening for the “Axis of Autocracies” to increase their influence globally.

Roche also dismissed the idea that Russia would fully abandon its war economy, even if a peace deal was signed. “Putin will use the ceasefire to rebuild Russia’s armed forces. Once the fighting stops, the horrific Russian losses of men and machines become daily additions to the armed forces,” he said. According to him, Russia’s military production has surged, churning out the equivalent of Germany’s entire arsenal every six months.

Despite cracks forming in Russia’s war machine, Roche said the window for pushing Russia over the edge has closed. “It wouldn’t have taken much to push it over the brink. But that is over as soon as losses stop,” he added.

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