Polymarket 2025 woes continues: Thailand to ban crypto’s leading prediction market

Thailand has joined the growing list of countries cracking down on Polymarket, the crypto-powered prediction platform.

Authorities announced plans to ban the platform, accusing it of “facilitating illegal online gambling.” The move puts Thailand on track with nations like Singapore, France, and Taiwan, which have already acted against Polymarket, intensifying the platform’s regulatory woes.

The crackdown in Thailand comes after local law enforcement declared Polymarket illegal due to its use of cryptocurrency for bets. “This platform is in violation of our gambling laws,” police stated in a press conference on Tuesday.

They emphasized that while crypto isn’t banned, using it for unregulated betting crosses a legal line. Thai officials are preparing to formally block the platform, a move expected to disrupt its operations in the region.

Singapore leads the charge against Polymarket

Thailand’s decision follows Singapore’s example. In December, Singapore’s Gambling Regulatory Authority (GRA) blocked Polymarket, citing unlawful gambling activities. A GRA spokesperson said the platform’s operations were inconsistent with Singaporean laws, prompting the ban.

Over the same weekend, users in Singapore reported losing access to the site, fueling speculation about a coordinated regulatory effort.

Polymarket allows traders to place bets using crypto by purchasing “yes” or “no” shares on the outcomes of events. The U.S. presidential election of 2024 turned it into a sensation, with $5 billion in trade volume logged in October and November alone.

But as quickly as the excitement came, it faded. By December, trade volumes slumped to $1.9 billion, and January figures hover around $515 million. Adding to Polymarket’s troubles is its ongoing struggle with U.S. regulators.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has been investigating the platform over possible violations of U.S. financial rules. In 2022, Polymarket barred U.S. users to settle with the CFTC, but enforcement remains aggressive. In November, the FBI executed a search warrant on Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan as part of a criminal probe.

From election frenzy to regulatory chaos

Polymarket’s rise was fueled by the twist it brings to prediction markets. It allowed users to speculate on everything, from election results to celebrity antics. During the U.S. presidential election, it handled record-breaking volumes.

Blockchain data from Dune Analytics shows November’s peak volume was 37,700% higher than the same month in the previous year. However, the platform’s success drew regulators’ attention, making it a global target.

France and Taiwan also imposed restrictions on Polymarket in 2024. Critics in these countries highlighted ethical concerns about some of its betting options. For instance, the platform faced backlash for offering bets on California wildfires, which many saw as profiteering from tragedy. Polymarket has yet to respond to these criticisms or requests for comments.

Despite the regulatory scrutiny, Polymarket claims its goal is to act as a “source of truth,” predicting events before traditional media catches up. However, this ambition hasn’t shielded it from controversy. In Thailand and Singapore, authorities have labeled it a gambling operation rather than an information source, dealing another blow to its credibility.

As Polymarket struggles, its rival Kalshi is gaining momentum. Unlike Polymarket, Kalshi is legal in the U.S., thanks to a September court ruling that allowed it to operate under CFTC oversight. This gives Kalshi an edge, especially as it secures high-profile endorsements. Donald Trump Jr. recently announced he’s joining Kalshi as an advisor, adding to the buzz around its future expansion.

Notably, Polymarket isn’t the only platform under the microscope. The CFTC is investigating other crypto platforms.

Crypto.com, for instance, is under review for offering futures contracts tied to major sporting events like the Super Bowl. Kalshi has faced criticism too, particularly for markets tied to high-profile tragedies, such as the murder of a UnitedHealth executive. 

Polymarket’s outstanding 2024 feels like a distant memory as it faces mounting legal and ethical challenges. Its open interest—meaning the value of unresolved markets—dropped 77% between November and January, signaling a steep decline in activity.

While it once dominated crypto prediction markets, its future now looks uncertain, with regulators worldwide tightening the noose. Whether it can recover remains to be seen, but the odds aren’t looking good.

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