Analysts say January Bitcoin decline is typical in post-halving years

Multiple market analysts say it is not unusual for Bitcoin to undergo a correction in the January that follows a halving year.

This comes after BTC’s price has seen a 10% decline in the last few days. It has, however, marginally recovered to around $94,000 after falling from a peak of $102,300 on January 7. 

Historical trends of January dips after halving

Bitcoin has seen more intense market corrections in previous halving years. After plunging more than 25% in 2021, the cryptocurrency gained 130% to record new highs around $69,000 later that same year. Before that, Bitcoin suffered a 30% decline in January 2017 before soaring 2,400% to reach $20,000 in the months that followed. 

According to crypto analyst and trader Axel Bitblaze, “Bitcoin dumping in January has historically been a common occurrence in post-halving years.” He added, “We all know what happened after the 2017 and 2021 dumps.” 

The recent 10% drop from Bitcoin’s all-time high price is nothing compared to previous pullbacks in the leading crypto’s price.

Stockmoney Lizards also maintains a positive outlook for BTC. According to the analyst, “Bitcoin has NOT reached the ultimate hype/pump phase.” Stockmoney Lizards also referenced significant drivers that could boost BTC’s price, including wider market adoption, crypto legislation, and the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Considering previous market behaviors, if history repeats and Bitcoin follows the 130% increase that it experienced in 2021, its new price might reach $200,000 in Q4 2025. However, if this cycle follows the January pullbacks of previous years, the leading crypto’s price may fall further to $70,000. 

Key factors that could push the market forward in 2025

The crypto market is expected to be pushed by several key factors in 2025.  First, increasing institutional adoption could bring more liquidity and price stability to the market, especially if spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs (exchange-traded funds) attract more capital. 

Additionally, a growing number of governments are introducing policies to promote crypto adoption that will create a more favorable environment for digital assets. Most notably, incoming US President Donald Trump is expected to introduce more favorable crypto policies that encourage innovation in the Web3 space.

Other governments are also exploring the possibility of launching a strategic BTC reserve to combat inflation. Should these initiatives become a reality, they could introduce more buying power into the market and solidify BTC’s status as a hedge against inflation.

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